Springboarding off my earlier Climate Science post, and now Borepatch's post...
- Does world average temperature mean anything useful at all? Or is it largely a useless aggregation of data that don't really go together?
- How do you square evolving as distance runners vs. doing high-intensity anaerobic exercise?
- What was the ESE like? How long was it stable? Was there a big genetic jump between the ESE and now? Ridley posits the introduction of trade pretty recently...does that invalidate a lot of prior ESE thinking, or just make it psychologically difficult for humans?
- Which factors actually matter most to life-outcomes out of: Big-5 Personality (esp. Conscientiousness), Self-Efficacy, IQ, Positive-ness, Patience, Social/Emotional Intelligence? (Aretae guess: Patience, Self-efficacy, Social Awareness, IQ, Big-5, Positivity). Is there something measurable and sensible that matters even more? (Aretae guess: yes -- motivation). How do you measure motivation independent of action?
- Do we actually have >99% certainty on anything at all? Drinking 9000 calories a day of Coke is bad for you is a bit narrower than I mean.
- How best to implement scarce, saleable titles of nobility which could work as a status-competition for rich folks with real benefits, but while minimizing the distortionary effects on real goods.
- What would count as disconfirmatory evidence for the formalist hypothesis, even in a partial, Bayesian sense?0