If the growth rate of bad shit is higher than the growth rate of good shit, you're screwed...if the reverse is true, you're golden.
Romer's new Growth theory:
Innovation = Growth
The Hanson-Falkenstein hypothesis:
Status/Envy dominates human social decision-making.
Aretae's competition law:
Power comes from scarcity/economics, not from formal structure or guns.
Commentary: The only mechanic in a (sufficiently isolated) mining town has more power than the guy who tells the guys with the guns what to do. Furthermore, if 10 different groups have guns...the power of each is highly constrained.
The Mancur Olsen equation:
All stable systems tend to damage innovation
Commentary: This is because innovation upsets status-patterns, and the high status people ALWAYS lose relative to some newcomer.
The Game Theory hypothesis:
The results of most social or biological systems can be predicted by calculating the Game theory (at an individual level) of various behavior patterns.
Pournelle's Iron Law:
All systems are captured by folks who attempt to increase/stabilize the system's power vs. outsiders.
(Yes, Aretaevian reformulation)
The game theory patterns of how to increase/stabilize a ruler's power are well-defined, and (nearly) completely determined by the size of the selectorate (% of population necessary to have support of in order to maintain power).
Modern experimental epistemology:
Individual prediction-making/rationality sucks badly.
When compared experimentally to betting markets, aggregation, team-based decisionmaking, experiment, or automated statistical analysis
Hayek's knowledge problem:
It is IMPOSSIBLE to effectively plan an economy in a way that increases welfare over what the market will provide. Information of the important types CANNOT be centralized.
BECAUSE the above are true
- there are precisely 2 political choices...
- unstable growing systems with constantly changing power dynamics
- stable systems that travel towards the malthusian wall.
- established powers are guaranteed to prefer B, based on status stability.
- Government is the most established power, and will always move towards prefering B.
- The stronger the government, the MORE they prefer B.