The virtue of excellence

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

What do we know about growth

Foseti calls out that we're not entirely clear what causes economic growth. However, that's not to say that we know nothing about the topic...just that we're not altogether clear on all the relationships.

Given what we're able to measure, comparing countries to one another...

  • Property rights, as a both legal and cultural institution, seems to be the #1 factor influencing growth.
  • Rule of Law (low discretionary power to government agents)...really this means that the rules aren't going to change ex-post facto.
  • Cultural factors are important...no one knows which ones.
  • Government corruption is huge in inhibiting growth
  • Low marginal tax rates are positively correlated with growth.
  • Limited democracy tends to win as the highest-growth governance option, whether that be through the half-democracy Asian model, or the technocracy of Scandanavia. Direct democracy is also good. Kleptocracy and large democracy suck.
  • Regulations almost universally inhibit growth, but sometimes benefit other things enough to compensate.
  • Freer trade is better than more protectionism, ceteris paribus
  • Practical knowledge increase ~= growth.
  • Real competition between jurisdictions increases growth.
What else? Seems like what we know about growth can be summarized:
  • Property rights + Predictable Rule of Law
  • Less government action is better in 90+% of cases.
  • Better government action is better in some cases too.
  • Culture matters lots, but in unknown ways.

1 comment:

drpat said...

To a small extent corruption can compensate for excessive regulation or government discretion.
This is part of why China can function.

But overall I can't disagree.