- All (+/- 3%) new stuff (things, ideas, plans, etc.) is crap.
- Those new things that aren't crap are responsible for ALL the differences between our lives and those of the dirt-eating peasantry of Egypt c. 2000BC.
- You can't tell which new stuff won't suck beforehand.
It's worse than that. Because of the ~3% that isn't crap. 99% IS crap on the first try.So the numbers on new stuff works out to:
So that leaves 0.03% that isn't crap on the first try. And a very valuable 2.97% that was crap on the first try, but if you keep at it will turn out to be antibiotics or something.
Now try separating that category from the stuff that is crap, but actually works on the first try, but doesn't lead anywhere. (Raiding the next village for food. Hey, this works! Let's base our society on it.)
- 90% pure crap
- 7% carefully disguised crap that looks like it might be good
- 2.97% diamonds that look like crap on 1st and usually 2nd attempts
- 0.03% obvious wins -- almost guaranteed to be pure luck + persistence.