The existence of an epistemic peer who holds a contrary belief is more devastating than any argument.Of course the standard solution to this obvious truth is to deny peerage to anyone who disagrees with you. As soon as you stop doing that, on reflexive monkeybrain status-management tricks...you have to drop your certainty ranges on roughly all positions into the sub-80% range.
The only people writing on the web that I can think of who appear to take this position seriously are Tyler Cowen, Robin Hanson, and Megan McArdle...hence my immense respect for them.
Others, who ignore this deep and important truth get massively downgraded because of it. No Aumann updating means you're playing in idea-spaces, not seriously chasing truth.