Aretae

The virtue of excellence

Saturday, December 3, 2011

Paragraph of the Year?

Maybe not otY on my blog, but on Sumner's econblog...probably true. Go read Scott Sumner quoting Reihan Salam on China.

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4 comments:

Leonard said...

Not to mention the other aspect of China's success:

First, we need to populate our country with people whose average IQ is above the Western average. That's before all the stuff that Salam mentions.

December 5, 2011 at 7:19 AM
Aretae said...

Leonard,

You're factually wrong.

Botswana, for instance, fails your test, and grew as fast or faster than China for most of the last 30 years.

Much of post-kleptocrat Africa is also growing like gangbusters presently.

China also had the same IQ, but far more central control before their growth policies. China didn't grow at all until they adopted Singapore style (Read english common law) market-oriented reforms.

Also, See North Korea/South Korea.

China is explicable using the same darn factors as every other growth policy this world has every known.

1. Countries regress to the mean (Poor countries A LOT grow faster)
2. Government GTFO policy is the core other question.

China is still poor as heck, having almost caught up with Jamaica...while 2nd world countries like MEXICO are far richer.

Similarly, there's still far too much central planning going on...and if they don't back off (By no means certain), they lose.

December 5, 2011 at 7:56 AM
Leonard said...

I don't disagree with Salam. Being post-kleptocrat or in some other way having a ruined economy is a great way to get a low baseline from which to grow.

But that's not my point. My point was, in all times, the USA will not be like China without Chinese-like people -- which we don't have. Your basic IQ and the Wealth of Nations, in other words. It is surely possible to drive a nation below where its national IQ would predict; destroying wealth is easy and attractive.

BTW, the second world was the commie bloc. Although I suppose that the label is now freed up for re-purposing.

December 5, 2011 at 9:02 PM
Aretae said...

Leonard,

1. I knew the 2nd world, and was intentionally repurposing, but there was no way for you to know that...so I suppose thanks for the assist.

2. I'm moderately suspicious of the IQ/WoN line. My claim: Institutions >> Population traits for wealth. Yes, IQ is among the more important traits, but institutions swamp IQ.

December 6, 2011 at 12:40 AM

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