The virtue of excellence

Monday, June 27, 2011

Long and Wrong

UPDATE/RETRACTION:

Oddly, I attempted this edit before, but it didn't stick.

This post was built off a quick read and a preconception of mine, both of which were erroneous.
The paper I was referring to is NOT a defense of the position that a non-religious person like me should take historical evidence about Jesus as sufficient to believe in God. Rather, the paper argues that for the already religious, some miracles (the resurrection in particular) are more likely than alternate explanations. I have devoted almost no thought to that topic, and hence my whole critique was attacking a position that the paper did not hold. Consider this retracted.


Chez Foseti, in the comments, a kind soul asked me to review this paper purporting to prove the Christ-ness of Jesus of Nazareth.



On a first scan of the paper.



1. The McGrews rest an awful lot of faith on eyewitnesses. However, we know that eyewitnesses are a tremendously unreliable form of evidence we have in courts. Highly convincing, and very often (can't quite say usually) wrong. Further...memory is rather weak. Further, groupthink is huge (Asch line experiments). The assertions about the core hypothesis being so believable because it came from motivated eyewitnesses are worth loud guffaws.



2. The structure of the paper appears to be: Condition A is unlikely, so let's ignore it...and condition B is unlikely, so let's ignore it, and ... Condition Q is unlikely so let's ignore it. AND NOW, let's do Bayesian math once we've ignored 47 options that would, in total, substantially decrease the subjective probability. Now, since we've ignored all the small probabilities of being wrong, we can assert there is a massive probability that we're right. It is as if they provide an argument that we MUST hit red on the next spin of the roulette wheel by dismissing as too minor to worry about each of the black numbers in turn (What's a 3% chance here?...too little to worry about, let's ignore it).



Unfortunately for the argument, if you include even tiny probabilities for his dismissed options, the math fails completely. Addressing the fact that reasonable (Christian) scholars disagree with the paper's analysis on the question of when the Gospels were written (paper asserts <70 years later... respectable scholarship has argued no less than 200 years later...and regardless that, it's a comparative certainty that whatever happened in the first 400 years after the death of Jesus, the Nicene council had massive motivation to suppress any contrary accounts). Not giving these contrary opinions a 1-10% prior probabilty is nuts...and if you give ANY positive probability at all to alternative options on any of about 20 counts that are swept under the rug, the Hume/Bayes argument that the paper is attempting to refute eats the paper's lunch.



3. Effectively, if you assume a conclusion, you can go a long ways. If you start from uncertainty...you simply can't get there.



4. It reminds me an awful lot of Josh McDowell's atrocious arguments...but with numbers thrown in in order to provide the illusion of respectability.

Sunday, June 26, 2011

On Julian Simon

Don Boudreaux discusses here & here.

Outsourcing Indignation

I'm just not very good at it...so while Kent is pondering effectiveness, I'll outsource a little to Popehat.

Reminder on science

Single factor outcome correlations usually aren't worth worrying about

Radiation (at almost any level) increases cancer incidence.
Radiation (at many low levels -- like most Fukushima levels) increases net lifespan.
Cancer isn't the only thing going on.

Calorie Restriction eating patterns massively decreases aging markers, and substantially increases lifespan in mice and monkeys.
Folks with a BMI in the "normal" range have lower lifespans than folks in the "overweight" range, and maybe (Memory fails) than folks in the Obese I category.
CR Benefits aren't the only thing going on.

Blood Cholesterol is correlated with heart attacks/stroke (But eating cholesterol bearing foods isn't).
Low levels of blood cholesterol give increased net mortality, especially in the elderly.
Heart attacks aren't the only thing going on.

Saturday, June 25, 2011

PoTD

As I've said innumerable times...the best reason to homeschool is for the improved relationship with your kids.


Capitalist Managerial Economies

Will Willkinson points out that though we're nominally capitalist, in real life, corporate structure and law usually screws the diffuse capital, and benefits the managers.

Friday, June 24, 2011

Manila Bleg

Come the beginning of August, I'll be spending a week in Manila working, plus at least 2 weekend days. What must I see/do/eat?

Someone snuck an alien into the Presidential Race

I just listened to Gary Johnson for 30 minutes...and if I weren't an anarchist, I'd probably have to vote for the guy, (as opposed to against the other scum). Consistent, libertarian positions, running on the republican ticket. Doesn't seem to be a fabulous speaker...but he seems like the kind of guy who could go all Chris Christie on the US Government.

Sousveillance FTW

Spy glasses, round 12.

It's not long before teens routinely wear audio-video auto-upload shades, or even contacts. Brin's transparent society is on the way.

Euvoluntaryism and Roissy

Why do folks find Game distasteful?

Because Game does not create a Euvoluntary situation. The player in a Game-style interaction has a higher BATNA as compared to the girl/target/mark. It's an assymmetric power-structure...where even if the lower-power person gains value, it's still distasteful.

Small town vs. Large Town life

I've been aware for years of a substantial difference in how folks interact between large cities and small towns. Last night, while I was trying to go to sleep, I thought that one can summarize the difference simply: The game theory is different in smaller groups and larger groups.

If you have a repeated Prisoners Dilemma game with no particular expected end-date, error-prone communication, and reputation effects, then one should play tit-for-two-tats: Be nice...and then if the other person screws you once, assume it was a mistake. If they screw you twice, then treat it as enemy action, but be ready to forgive if they start being nice. (Try not to get trapped in an endless cycle of punishment).

If you have a single-play Prisoners Dilemma, with no reputation effects, one should play predator. Defect first.

Roughly...one can claim that small-ish groups (Small towns) are an awful good approximation of iterated Prisoners Dilemmas with error-prone communication and reputation effects. Folks from small towns should have tit-for-two-tats as their default psychological orientation.

One can also claim that large-city interactions approximate single-play Prisoners Dilemmas with no reputation effects. As such, folks from large cities should have Predator as their default psychological orientation.

Incidentally...businesses in Large cities should tend to play closer to a tit-for-tat or tf2t than individuals should. Again, pure game theory...because of reputation effects.

This would also explain, with some success, some of the differential between the quality of life in Small Towns and Large Cities. With any reasonable proportion of folks playing TF2T, quality of life for everyone will just be better than when most folks play Predator.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Immigration vs. Hans Herman Hoppe (long)

Whereas responding to lunatics and the economically illiterate on the topic of immigration is generally easy...responding to an economically literate anarcho-capitalist such as Hans Herman Hoppe is a bit trickier. Here's his starting position:
The classical argument in favor of free immigration runs as follows: [...large snip...]

In addition, traditionally labor unions, and nowadays environmentalists, are opposed to free immigration, and this should prima facie count as another argument in favor of a policy of free immigration.

As it is stated, the above argument in favor of free immigration is irrefutable and correct. It would be foolish to attack it, just as it would be foolish to deny that free trade leads to higher living standards than does protectionism.

It would also be wrongheaded to attack the above case for free immigration by pointing out that because of the existence of a welfare state, immigration has become to a significant extent the immigration of welfare-bums, who, even if the United States, for instance, is below her optimal population point, do not increase but rather decrease average living standards. For this is not an argument against immigration but against the welfare state. To be sure, the welfare state should be destroyed, root and branch. However, in any case the problems of immigration and welfare are analytically distinct problems, and they must be treated accordingly.

Awful close, on all points, to my economic position on free immigration. Then he goes all AnCap on me:
For the purpose of illustration, let us first assume an anarcho-capitalist society. Though convinced that such a society is the only social order that can be defended as just, I do not want to explain here why this is the case. Instead, I will employ it as a conceptual benchmark, because this will help clear up the fundamental misconception of most contemporary free immigration advocates.

[...snip...]

Clearly, under this scenario there exists no such thing as freedom of immigration. Rather, there exists the freedom of many independent private property owners to admit or exclude others from their own property in accordance with their own unrestricted or restricted property titles. Admission to some territories might be easy, while to others it might be nearly impossible. In any case, however, admission to the property of the admitting person does not imply a "freedom to move around," unless other property owners consent to such movements. There will be as much immigration or non-immigration, inclusivity or exclusivity, desegregation or segregation, non-discrimination or discrimination based on racial, ethnic, linguistic, religious, cultural or whatever other grounds as individual owners or associations of individual owners allow.

Note that none of this, not even the most exclusive form of segregationism, has anything to do with a rejection of free trade and the adoption of protectionism. [... snip ...]

In an anarcho-capitalist society there is no government and, accordingly, no clear-cut distinction between inlanders (domestic citizens) and foreigners.

[... snip ...]

Now, if the government excludes a person while even one domestic resident wants to admit this very person onto his property, the result is forced exclusion (a phenomenon that does not exist under private property anarchism). Furthermore, if the government admits a person while there is not even one domestic resident who wants to have this person on his property, the result is forced integration (also non-existent under private property anarchism).

The left libertarian anarchist type (myself) agrees, but would furthermore advocate treating many types of discrimination (most of those listed) like one treats lack of personal hygeine: as indicating a person to be avoided, and perhaps made fun of in polite company.

As a note...when you hear anti-immigration (and anti-integration) libertarians talking about immigration, they're usually focusing on the forced integration aspect, which most reasonable people find unjust. Similarly, when you hear pro-immigration libertarians talking immigration, we're always focused on the forced exclusion aspect, which most reasonable people also find unjust. It's nice to hear both in an argument.

But now, Herr Doktor Hoppe and I part ways. Here he is on Monarchic government:

It is now time to enrich the analysis through the introduction of a few "realistic" empirical assumptions. Let us assume that the government is privately owned. The ruler literally owns the entire country within state borders. He owns part of the territory outright (his property title is unrestricted), and he is partial owner of the rest (as landlord or residual claimant of all of his citizen-tenants real estate holdings, albeit restricted by some kind of pre-existing rental contract). He can sell and bequeath his property, and he can calculate and "realize" the monetary value of his capital (his country).


Traditional monarchies – and kings – are the closest historical examples of this form of government.

What will a king's typical immigration and emigration policy be? Because he owns the entire country's capital value, he will, assuming no more than his self-interest, tend to choose migration policies that preserve or enhance rather than diminish the value of his kingdom.

As far as emigration is concerned, a king will want to prevent the emigration of productive subjects, in particular of his best and most productive subjects, because losing them would lower the value of the kingdom. Thus, for example, from 1782 until 1824 a law prohibited the emigration of skilled workmen from Britain.
I find this a clearly odious practice. It is a serfdom law, which (going all Kantian on your behinds) treats men as other than ends in themselves. As even Moldbug says...serfdom and slavery were all but the same thing. Any state attempting this is evil. Continuing with Hoppe:
[...]
On the other hand, as far as immigration policy is concerned, a king would want to keep the mob, as well as all people of inferior productive capabilities, out.

Fiddlesticks and nonsense. Yes, this is a common wrong position. No doubt many Kings thought as much as well. That makes it a common mistake, not a correct position.

Issue #1: Productive capabilities may be putting me on tilt here, so I'll address that first. The actual issue is production, not capability...and despite the fact that we know some things, we also don't know a lot of things. As a teacher, I'm solidly in the camp: Motivation beats Practice beats Talent. If we note that it's actually productivity, not productive capability that we're looking for...the rest of the conclusions here don't actually follow.

Issue #2a: Quantity has a quality all it's own. China is a poor, barely ex-communist country. Had it ONLY 100M people, like, say Mexico...it wouldn't be part of the geopolitical discussion for another 50-100 years. ONLY the quantity of people in China makes it relevant at all. Ditto India. Even 300 200M people, like Indonesia, would make it barely worth talking about.

Issue #2b: Julian Simon, goddamit. Ceteris Paribus, more people is better on every axis we know how to measure.

Summary of my disagreement. The decision to keep out folks who are (judged to be) less productively capable is at the very least a non-obvious conclusion, and in my estimation, an obviously wrong conclusion.

Moving on to democratic government. Our disagreement is comparatively low here:

Migration policies become predictably different, once the government is publicly owned. The ruler no longer owns the country's capital value, but only has current use of it. He cannot sell or bequeath his position as ruler; he is merely a temporary caretaker. Moreover, "free entry" into the position of a caretaker government exists. Anyone can, in principle, become the ruler of the country.

Democracies as they came into existence on a world-wide scale after World War I offer historical examples of public government.

What are a democracy's migration policies? Once again assuming no more than self-interest (maximizing monetary and psychic income: money and power), democratic rulers tend to maximize current income, which they can appropriate privately, at the expense of capital values, which they cannot appropriate privately. Hence, in accordance with democracy's inherent egalitarianism of one-man-one-vote, they tend to pursue a distinctly egalitarian – non-discriminatory – emigration and immigration policy.

As far as emigration policy is concerned, this implies that for a democratic ruler it makes little, if any, difference whether productive or unproductive people, geniuses or bums leave the country. They have all one equal vote. In fact, democratic rulers might well be more concerned about the loss of a bum than that of a productive genius. While the loss of the latter would obviously lower the capital value of the country and loss of the former might actually increase it, a democratic ruler does not own the country. In the short run, which most interests a democratic ruler, the bum, voting most likely in favor of egalitarian measures, might be more valuable than the productive genius who, as egalitarianism's prime victim, will more likely vote against the democratic ruler. For the same reason, a democratic ruler, quite unlike a king, undertakes little to actively expel those people whose presence within the country constitutes a negative externality (human trash, which drives individual property values down). In fact, such negative externalities – unproductive parasites, bums, and criminals – are likely to be his most reliable supporters.

In the last while, this as seemed pretty clearly to be inaccurate. Governments know that the genius is lootable, while the bum is not...hence the growing attempts to re-impose evil emmigration policies.

As far as immigration policies are concerned, the incentives and disincentives are likewise distorted, and the results are equally perverse. For a democratic ruler, it also matters little whether bums or geniuses, below or above-average civilized and productive people immigrate into the country. Nor is he much concerned about the distinction between temporary workers (owners of work permits) and permanent, property owning immigrants (naturalized citizens). In fact, bums and unproductive people may well be preferable as residents and citizens, because they cause more so-called "social" problem," and democratic rulers thrive on the existence of such problems. Moreover, bums and inferior people will likely support his egalitarian policies, whereas geniuses and superior people will not. The result of this policy of non-discrimination is forced integration: the forcing of masses of inferior immigrants onto domestic property owners who, if they could have decided for themselves, would have sharply discriminated and chosen very different neighbors for themselves. Thus, the United States immigration laws of 1965, as the best available example of democracy at work, eliminated all formerly existing "quality" concerns and the explicit preference for European immigrants and replaced it with a policy of almost complete non-discrimination (multi-culturalism).

[...snip...]

The call about wanting extra social problems is a good one. The call about forced integration is unpleasant. The important thing to note is that the government is schizoid, tyrannical, and insane. The south went from having legal requirements to segregate to having legal requirements to integrate in the space of about 5 years. If that doesn't constitute insanity ... Gahh. Why don't we remove the F'in law mandating discrimination, and see what happens. Oh, right...the government must be seen to be the solution to a problem, not the core of the problem itself.

Hoppe Concludes:
The current situation in the United States and in Western Europe has nothing whatsoever to do with "free" immigration. It is forced integration, plain and simple [...snip...]
I disagree with the strong form of the statement, and agree with the weak form.

There are two issues at play here...
1. Mario from Mexico wants to come up to the farm near my house and pick Corn, working long hours in bad conditions, for low pay, with no health insurance. I want Mario up here picking corn. He's working his ass off, and deserves every penny he can make, and any law keeping him from doing so is evil.

2. Chun-li from China wants to come here, vacation at an American hotel, and have her baby while staying in the USA, thus granting him American Citizenship. F! that.

3. Remember that at the beginning, Hoppe agreed with me that the problem is the welfare state, NOT immigration...we can't invoke the welfare argument here.

Hoppe continues:
More specifically, the authority to admit or exclude should be stripped from the hands of the central government and re-assigned to the states, provinces, cities, towns, villages, residential districts, and ultimately to private property owners and their voluntary associations. The means to achieve this goal are decentralization and secession (both inherently un-democratic, and un-majoritarian). One would be well on the way toward a restoration of the freedom of association and exclusion as it is implied in the idea and institution of private property, and much of the social strife currently caused by forced integration would disappear, if only towns and villages could and would do what they did as a matter of course until well into the nineteenth century in Europe and the United States: to post signs regarding entrance requirements to the town, and once in town for entering specific pieces of property (no beggars or bums or homeless, but also no Moslems, Hindus, Jews, Catholics, etc.); to kick out those who do not fulfill these requirements as trespassers; and to solve the "naturalization" question somewhat along the Swiss model, where local assemblies, not the central government, determine who can and who cannot become a Swiss citizen.
So long as there are furthermore no prohibitions against boycotting businesses that work in towns that prohibit Gays or Hindus...huzzah. And I'm towards the front of the line to organize the boycotts. At the same time...I think Swiss decentralization is 100% correct for almost all problems.

And then the final paragraphs...
[...snip....]

[Sane immigration policy] means distinguishing strictly between "citizens" (naturalized immigrants) and "resident aliens" and excluding the latter from all welfare entitlements.
Huzzah. I've argued this before, and I claim it would resolve the immigration debate in a way that makes everyone (except the politicians, who would lose an issue to posture about) happy.
It means requiring as necessary, for resident alien status as well as for citizenship, the personal sponsorship by a resident citizen and his assumption of liability for all property damage caused by the immigrant.
If you'll recall, I've personally argued this as well. I hadn't previously mentioned a surety bond would do just as well...just as a sufficient bond will substitute for Auto Insurance in some states.
It implies requiring an existing employment contract with a resident citizen;
This is insane. It assumes an employer-employee relationship as the basic approach to work, rather than an entrepreneurial model. This can do nothing but strengthen the corporatist state. Also...many/most immigrants who wish to work work far too hard and too long of hours to be stuck in a job. Hoppe here grants too much of the current pro-state structure as given. If we modify that to a properly open, non wage-slave structure, we might agree, though: An employment contract, or a surety bond, or guaranteed financial support...or even potentially an expectation of financial independence for the Visa's time-frame. When I visited Russia for 6 months, I took a credit card. Am I prohibited from visiting without financial documentation? Am I prohibited from teaching my landlady better English in exchange for lunches? What kind of prohibition do we wish to impose?

And his final sentence:
moreover, for both categories but especially that of citizenship, it implies that all immigrants must demonstrate through tests not only (English) language proficiency, but all-around superior (above-average) intellectual performance and character structure as well as a compatible system of values – with the predictable result of a systematic pro-European immigration bias.
Complete and utter fabricated bullshit, with no support whatsoever, except in his own pre-built prejudices.

Illegal immigrant lawnmowers in Houston, Austin, Chicago, and California have no cause whatsoever to speak good English, be geniuses, or agree with me on more than the price of a mowed lawn. So long as there's no welfare, and no vote, there's no issue.

Further...it shocks me that Hoppe with his economics training is trapped into believing such central-planning silliness. You need NOTHING more than a lack of welfare for resident aliens, and advantages to learning English. Sure, there are still 3rd generation Russians in Chicago who don't speak English...but there's only about 3 of them.

Hoppe's academic bias blinds him to the fact that for trade with others, value comes from work, not capability.

Overall...Hoppe's argument is pretty strong, except in discussing people owning other people, in misunderstanding what makes a country better off, and in his completely unrelated conclusion.

Aretaevian epistemology in 1 sentence

Real world Bayesian predictive success rate is 90% of epistemology, with the other 10% being backwards evaluation of methods for generating predictive algorithms.

In English:

The only question worth talking about regarding knowledge is: how good are your predictions, as measured against the real world. If you're a loser (you can't handle that question), then you can meta- out a level or two and discuss prior instances of building predictive methods using your meta-method or meta-meta-method.


Therefore:
your meta-method and/or meta-meta-method should be high-speed feedback loops.

UPDATE:
My favorite part of this may be that it is self-referentially correct.

Links

  • Prison Rape facts. CoyoteBlog comments. Caplan comments.
  • Sailer snarking about leftist, female journalists (unsanitary link) -- UPDATED.
  • Ozimek @ McArdle's place on immigration data.
    Immigration has little impact on wages and employment. But a 10% increase in immigration drives up house prices by 1%
  • Hanson with a strong anti-AI argument. If we combine this with the Aretaevian understanding that improvement comes (almost exclusively) from trial and error...this is an even more impressive idea. More from Charles Stross.
  • Quote from Falkenstein in the context of something or other.
    The biggest mistakes are the ones everyone makes, because it's easy to dismiss criticisms because there are many smart people doing what you are doing. Smart, however, just means you can articulate your beliefs well, not that they are correct.
  • Standard government efficiency: Fine folks for not using non-existent products.
  • Tim B. Lee, loosely referencing Vargas (Itself a must-read):
    Again, there’s a huge double standard here. We American citizens take a strictly moralistic tone toward laws that we don’t personally have to follow. But “the rule of law” goes out the window when it comes to that pot you smoked in college, or the use taxes you haven’t paid on your Amazon purchases, or those pirated MP3s on your hard drive. When we’re talking about laws that actually affect us, we’re glad there’s some breathing room between the law on the books and what people actually get punished for.
  • George Selgin, in discussing mathematical modeling in Economics makes this mistake:
    The point is that both mathematical economics and the verbal kind have their place; neither is intrinsically better than the other; and each can serve as a useful test of the other. A formal model can reveal deficiencies or omissions in a verbal argument; but a few well-chosen words are just as capable of exposing an absurd argument or false assumption lurking in some seemingly innocent equation. The claim that “it takes a model to beat a model” would be just plain goofy were it not so effectively employed by mathematical economists anxious to insulate their work from criticisms by persons who know less math—but perhaps more economics—than they do.
    In reality, real world observation is the check on both math modeling and verbal reasoning...and the two disciplines are only good for hypothesis generation.
  • Apparently Barney Frank, when not misbehaving horribly or almost single-handedly causing the mortgage crisis, does some good things.

Left Libertarianism policy implications

(from a private conversation) So...I speak as a philosopher in the abstract about left libertarianism rather a lot. What does it mean in real life for policy implications? Because:
  1. Creators are responsible for some portion, greater than 10%, of their own wealth: Without Steve Jobs, we don't have iPods, iPhones, iPads, and maybe not even hardcore smartphones, just like without Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas has no Larry O'Brien Trophy.
  2. Society is responsible for some portion, greater than 10%, of their wealth: Had Jobs been African or Russian, or even, likely, European, he would not be a Billionaire. If he'd been Chinese, Indian, Russian, or African, he might just be dead already. His success is substantially due to the society he lives in...not just his own brilliance.
  3. Incentives matter
  4. Different people have different preferences.
  5. Government decisions are almost all government-benefitting, NOT population-benefitting.
  6. Government regulations are almost universally public-choice and iron-law susceptible, regardless the nominal form of the government.
I therefore support several positions in order regarding welfare:
  1. End all corporate welfare unilaterally.
  2. Removal from the Federal Government's Taxing and redistributing capabilities (repeal of the income tax amendment), and placing that capability at the state level. Effectively, aggressive federalism.
  3. If I can't get #2, then replace ALL welfare programs, at all levels with a negative income tax, as proposed by Milton Friedman. As per Arnold Kling, Income tax = 40% with $10K deduction PER ADULT. If you make 0, you get paid $10K for the year; if you make $25K, you pay 0 taxes; If you make $50K, you pay $10K taxes. (Zero allowance for kids, to avoid AFDC incentive issues -- or to appease my eugenicist and pro-child friends, n% deduction per child, thus making kids a more valuable investment for the rich, but not for the poor).
    UPDATE: Fixed the numbers after math error caught by Dr. Pat.
  4. Even if I can get #2...I support something near #3 for the state I live in.
On Healthcare:
  1. Eliminate the Federal Government's involvement in Medicine. ESPECIALLY, eliminate the FDA and the Income Tax deduction for health insurance.
  2. Eliminate state-level supply restrictions on physicians. If I want to go to an unlicensed Chiropractor, that really should be my decision. And the Chiropractor should be (partially) liable if I get hurt. If Vinny the Vet wants to also set broken bones...he should be allowed to. If Greg the Gamer plays Sega Virtual Physician for 20,000 hours, and has an international high score at diagnosing illnesses...he should be allowed to advertise that fact, and try it on people.
  3. In the absence of real free markets in medicine, and massively state-managed artificial price increases via HUGE restrictions in supply through FDA and Doctor Licensure and HUGE increases in demand via tax-subsidy support of first-dollar insurance...we should adopt Singapore-style required HSAs (Automatic 1% Salary to pay for catastrophic insurance [Covering everything past 15% annual income], and 4% Salary to pay for a HSA).
  4. In the absence of Free Markets, or Singapore-style HSAs, we should adopt German-/Kaiser- style single-payer, with payment by
On Marriage:
  1. End federal recognition of marriage
  2. End state recognition of marriage
  3. Governments should have NOTHING to do with the business of Marriage. At best, governments should manage contracts as written.
On roads:
  1. End federal involvement with roads.
  2. End state involvement with roads.
  3. Sell/Rent/Lease existing roads, if one can ensure easy access for competitors. Without competition, the answer is less obvious to me.
On Drugs/Police:
  1. Stop the idiotic drug war (legalize!) , which is mostly a funding operation for police departments.
  2. Eliminate the protected class of citizen: police. SO long as police are subject to all the same laws, checks, and balances as other citizens...and So long as police have no special privileges, life is good.
On courts/laws:
  1. Disallow law enforcement when a reasonable participant cannot be expected to understand the law (Eliminates Obamacare in 1 swell foop).
  2. Eliminate the category of civil law. Eliminate the category of criminal law. Common, tort-law only. The only place for civil law is in specifying what kinds of common law cannot be accepted.
  3. Encourage private arbitration. public courts should be last-resort options after a failure to reach agreement as to which private arbitrator should hold sway. Uphold 95% of private arbitration cases referred to the public system.
On prisons:
  1. Reclassify prison as cruel and unusual punishment...reclassify physical pain as NOT. Caning instead of prison. Of course with the elimination of civil law, this shouldn't be a problem.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Quote

I've heard it before, but it sums up so much:
All power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men, even when they exercise influence and not authority: still more when you superadd the tendency or certainty of corruption by full authority. There is no worse heresy than that the office sanctifies the holder of it.
Insert obligatory anti-formalist, left-libertarian promotion here.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Podcast -- Euvoluntaryism

Understanding Leftism.
I think that Mike Munger, in this podcast with Russ Roberts, really hits it out of the park. Fundamentally, I think he captures the intuition differences between Leftists and un-leftists... and he does so as a libertarian, explaining to libertarians and conservatives how to understand leftism as an approach.
It's hard to call a 1-hour podcast required listening...but I don't listen or watch much of anything online -- if it ain't text it ain't worth it... It's awful close to required. It's up there with Romer and Kahneman in explaining the world.

For those of y'all not willing to listen, the 1-minute summary by me:
A transaction is voluntary if

(a) both people agree
(b) no force is used
and maybe
(c) no regret afterwards
Note: this is a fudge, to protect against attacks, and ideally, we'd all prefer to drop it.

However, lots of folks want to prohibit lots of voluntary transactions, like, say, kidney sales, or sweatshop labor.

Munger argues that adding a 4th condition can making the transaction super-voluntary (he uses the word EuVoluntary -- Happy voluntary, using standard prefixing), and eliminate ALL objections to the transaction. The condition:
(d) BATNA near-equivalence. BATNA= (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement)

IF my choice is to Work for you as a slave or starve, we can call the transaction voluntary, but there's a real sense in which it's not voluntary. Ditto to:
  • Selling your kidney vs. starving.
  • Working at age 10, instead of going to school.
  • Working in a sweatshop
Basically...transactions are bad (deeply, intuitively, for MOST people) in which there are massive imbalances of power in a trade. Try it on as an explanatory framework...and listen to the darn podcast. Remarkably good presentation.

Monday, June 20, 2011

PoTD

Ideological Turing Test. Caplan wins. I'm also up for the game.


Father's Day Dinner

Made for my dad + 2 of his friends + my family of 5 by me and wife.

Course 1:
Caprese -- Tomato (local grown), Basil (picked off a basil plant by me), Mozzarella (fresh), drizzled with a sweet Portuguese balsamic vinegar (carried in luggage from Portugal).

Course 2:
Bread, Cheese, Fruit plate -- Fresh Baguette, Triple Cream Brie, 2 varieties of fresh local grapes.

Main Course:
Seared Filet Mignon -- MUCH more cooked than I usually make it at medium rare.
French Fries -- Boring, but if you've ever lived in Belgium, you'd know they're obligatory
Green Beans
ALL covered in a wine-cream-Roquefort sauce that may well be the tastiest sauce on the planet.

Salad course (French, after the meal):
Mixed greens + sliced tomatoes drizzled with a homemade raspberry vinagrette. Homemade=started with raspberries.

Dessert:
Lemon-cinammon cheesecake -- special recipe handed down from dad's mother. Dad + I don't think Cheesecake factory makes very good cheesecakes, compared to home.

The triple cream brie was not a hit, except with me. Truly, grapes + baguette + brie is a treat. On the other hand, there was nothing left of anything else we made, except the two boys (5+15) didn't eat the green beans or salad.

July Schedule

  1. June 29 start driving from home (SLO) to TX. Wiggle my way along (mostly) US40, stopping at the Grand Canyon (family has never seen).
  2. Make it to wife's family in Houston on the 3rd + 5th, while visiting other family in College Station on the 4th.
  3. Spend the 6th in Austin, and then later in the evening, drive north to Dallas.
  4. Spend the night of the 6th, in Dallas, then drive north to Chicago, arriving on the 10th.
  5. Work in Chicago 11-15, leave abruptly on the afternoon of the 15th, then slide west to Yellowstone by Sunday night.
  6. Work an online class for the week, from Yellowstone.
  7. Friday the 22, drive from Yellowstone to San Fran, arriving Sunday July 24th.
  8. Teach in person from July 25th to the 29th.
  9. July 30th...family drives home, I get on a plane to Manila, to teach another week of class.
  10. August 6th....return home, rest.

Friday, June 17, 2011

Response to Reich

Robert Reich does 135 seconds on the economy. It follows his primary standard argument...but I think it's unfair/misleading, and I'm compelled to respond.

Reich's 6 points:
1. Economy doubles since 1980s, but wages flat.
2. All gains go to the super-rich (Formal point)
3 split point
a. Money creates political power (Formal point)
b. The rich's political power has let to lower tax rates (discussion)
4. split point
a. Huge Budget Deficits (Formal point)
b. Schools are over-crowded & Roads under-funded (discussion).
5. split point
a. Middle class divided. (Formal point)
b. We should be pulling together -- Unions + non-unions, immigrants + locals (discussion)
6. Anemic Recovery

Therefore...
7. Only way to a strong economy is a strong middle class


Response:
1. Total compensation is not flat. 3rd party health-care + Taxes eating whole added income.
2. Not just to super-rich. On the other hand, globalization adds some winner-take all structure.
3a. True
3b. Lower tax rates, true...but the same taxes collected. So the argument is already really fishy.
4a. The WHOLE budget deficit attributable to increased spending. If spending as a share of national income were the same as in 1996...we'd have no deficit. Taxes are flat-ish, except that recession made everyone poor and tax receipts dropped.
4b. School spending is all administration. It's bad public spending that causes school crowding. Real per student spending is up 2x since 1970. I don't know the roads data.
5. All rhetoric. The more we think "WE", usually, the more control we cede to the government... and the worse things get. The less we think "WE", the better things get. I have rhetoric too.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Confiming my Bias

Over the past month, I've become rather insistent that Wealth drives liberty. Wealth is the uber-metric, growth rate is the Meta-metric, and Liberty is an expensive good, that is purchased in large quantities by anyone who can afford it.

Here's my bias confirmed.

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Still outsourcing indignation

to Kent, who does it so well. FWIW, I agree wholeheartedly with Kent. Read his short indignant piece (before continuing?).

Basic (Austrian) value-subjectivism is the claim that different people ACTUALLY want different things. If value-subjectivism is true (And I think it obviously is)....then huge chunks of government (all?) are the claim that "I think that not only am I right about what is important, but I am SO right and SO certain that I am justified in (a) taking your $ to finance my particular obsession, and then (b) using your $ to pay thugs shoot you if you violate the obsession."

If you happen to be insane, non-reflective, and think that you are obviously right...I can see this line making sense to you. If you aren't insane...if you think that differences of opinion with other intelligent people indicate ANY chance of your being wrong...I don't see how it's ever epistemologically justified.

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Immigration Post

Ilya Somin has a much more dataful post than I'm usually used to on the immigration debate.

Also, yesterday, I whipped out an excel spreadsheet and tried to analyze unemployment rate vs. immigration rate, and economic freedom index, in order to respond to Foseti's well-presented post on the topic. Strange thing was, with 50 states, I was unable to get solid relationships between either
  • unemployment rate (Mar 2011) and immigration rate (2005?)
OR
  • unemployment rate (Mar 2011) and economic freedom index (2008)
(There were small correlations in opposite directions of what I'd expect in BOTH cases...probably means I was doing something wrong)
However, there was a shockingly positive (.33) POSITIVE correlation between
  • immigration rate and economic freedom
More immigrants made for higher economic freedom. WTF? IIlya's post makes my numbers make sense, to some extent.

And they line up with a long ago post of mine promoting higher immigration as a solution to the welfare state: Higher immigration = lower social cohesion = lower support for welfare policies.

Meme oTW

The Nation State is losing.
  • Gurgaon
  • Charter City in Honduras
  • Friedmanite Seasteading
  • Anonymous
  • Bitcoin
  • Silk Road
My bet:

By 2100, barring singularity, at least 5 of the top 10 cities in the world (Measeure by PPP GDP/QoL, Freedom Index) to live will be city-states/autonomous zones. Singapore, Hong Kong were just round one. In the next 90 years, they explode, win.

The questions:
  • Will some of them be in the US?
  • Will any of them abolish Patent protection entirely?
  • Should we count mini-states with the same population as a large city? (Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland all have population < NYC)?
  • How bad will the nation-state backlash be (US, China, esp.) when they find out they're backwards has-beens who can't compete.

Dangers

What dangers face civilization....what am I worried about?
  1. Natural existential risks -- Super-volcanos, Comet-strikes, Ice Ages, pandemic
  2. Created existential risks -- War, Rogue Nukes, Engineered super-germs, Grey Goo, Rogue SI, Bad Singularity
  3. Killing the golden goose -- Growth rate decline via practical innovation-decline.
  4. Government response to loss of control.
  5. ???

What am I worried about in terms of innovation decline?

In the West:
Government-action
  1. Regulation -- licensing, land-use, import restrictions, minimum-wages, rent control, fees, time taken
  2. Patents -- specific kind of regulation, but the one I'm most worried about.
  3. Loss of Property Rights -- Drug seizure with no recourse, Eminent Domain, etc.
  4. Big Government Industries -- Education/Health Care -- killing innovation, and eating $
  5. Ruinous taxation on the becoming-rich. -- The safe/default assumption is that the already rich will manage the tax details to shield themselves somehow, while the not-yet rich will be screwed.
If economic growth is allowed to continue, life is good, and all the other details (Immigration,marriage rate, etc.) are insignificant. If economic growth is stopped, via (nearly universally) governments protecting existing interests against newcomers, we're all screwed.

Article OTD

Education & Project Euler. HT: Seth Roberts

Saturday, June 11, 2011

QoTD

Gary Chartier:
I'm an anarchist because I believe there's no natural right to rule … because I believe the state lacks legitimacy … because I believe the state is unnecessary … because the state tips the scales in favor of privileged elites and against ordinary people … because the state tends to be destructive. It engages in war and plunder, and seems persistently to be involved in ratcheting up the level of violence and injustice across borders — which are, of course, themselves state creations … because the state restricts personal freedom — as a way of maintaining order, benefiting the privileged, preserving its own power, or subsidizing some people's moralizing preferences … and because I believe a stateless society would provide opportunities for people to explore diverse ways of living fulfilled, flourishing lives and to put the results of their exploration on display.
I agree.

Aretae on Immigration

  1. I favor nearly complete freedom of movement. If Juan wants to visit the US, cool.
  2. I favor nearly complete freedom of contract (duration-limited, inalienable rights). If Juan wants to trade his labor for my $, or his $ for my labor in the US, cool.
  3. I favor dropping the soil option for American citizenship. If Juanita has a baby at an American Hospital, so what.
  4. I favor a total taxes paid citizenship requirement. If Juan works for 25 years at $40K/y, and pays $250K in taxes, he gets citizenship/voting.
  5. I considered, but am leaning mildly against applying #4 to voting rights for all citizens (pseudo-Heinlein option). If Bertie Wilberforce Wooster III is a citizen, that does not mean that his son, BWW IV can vote, unless he also works and pays taxes.
  6. I favor placing citizenship requirements on welfare/free services. Juan Jr., as a non-citizen, doesn't get to use the schools unless his parent pays for them. I suppose we'd have to relax compulsory attendance rules...how sad.

Friday, June 10, 2011

Causes of Job Weakness

A meme running around the blogosphere this week is that the added participants in the economy since the 60s (women and immigrants) are substantially to blame for men's joblessness, and stagnant wages.

Half-nonsense.

I'm not willing to address the women argument yet. It's more complex than is being handled presently. Immigrants causing job losses? nonsense.

1. Jobs are dynamically created and destroyed. They are not static.
2. Adding 1 person to the economy increases both total demand and total supply of labor. Overall...adding a working adult to the economy has somewhere between a tiny positive and a tiny negative effect, once we consider both the services consumed and the work given.
3. The US has had persistently higher job creation and destruction than Europe for most of the last 50 years. What accounts for the difference? Largely, regulations. Europe is far more regulated than is the US. HOWEVER, in the past 15 years, the number of US regulations has been growing incessantly, narrowing the gap between the US and Europe. Shockingly, our unemployment is also up.
4. What is the major/primary cause of unemployment in the US? Labor market rigidities, primarily introduced by government regulators. If you're not talking about regulators causing the problem here...you're trying to bandage the stubbed toe on a cancer patient.

QoTD

via Insty:
“One German organic farm has killed twice as many people as the Fukushima nuclear disaster and the Gulf Oil spill combined.”

Experiment oTD

Lecture by good lecturers SUCKS.
RTWT.
Lecture is a worthless part of learning.
However, it is dozens of times easier to do than to create useful learning activities.
And it moves the teacher status up, which is the real purpose of the lecture.
Again, RTWT.

Article oTD

Holder, Wire, Drug War. RTWT

WoTD

Nuclophobe. I would recommend spreading the word.

Thursday, June 9, 2011

Drug War

As per yesterday's links on libertarian outcomes, and the eminences' report...what outcome would we expect if the Drug War ended?

Claim 1:
The primary thing that the war on drugs does is that it pushes trade in illegal substances out of the legal market and into the illegal market.

The illegal market has several features:

1. Policing. since sane criminals don't call the police for drug theft, there has to be an alternate mechanism for deal-enforcement. That mechanism ends up being a gang/cartel. However, it's worse than that. In an anarchy, we'd expect that the gang would enforce the trades, according to some standard...and everyone would know...and the violence would be minimized. However, as it exists, the police not only don't provide contract-enforcement, but they also attempt to prevent contract-enforcement by anyone else. This undermining of the natural contract-enforcement mechanism is the super-reason we have massive drug violence. I'd expect, and rather strongly, that in any case where the police allowed drug gangs to enforce their contracts without interference...violence would drop towards zero quickly.

2. Seller risk. Dodging the law has substantial costs. The price of the product is way up. Artificial scarcity...almost universally good for suppliers, bad for customers.

3. Buyer risk. There is no good way to enforce trademark: Product of Columbia 100% pure. IF there were no government interference, we could parallel the Kosher certification process as a 100% private issue. However, with government interference, we get crappy quality drugs that hurt the users.

4. Customer Danger. Where I live...underage drugs are as easy/easier to get than underage alcohol. Really? Is that the world that we want to build? Bringing stuff INTO the law has a better ability to use it to promote any results you can admit you'd like than leaving it outside the law.

5. Health. To the extent that drug use is a health issue, we're prevented from addressing it as a health issue, for fear of crossing legal lines.

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Important Libertarian Posts

  • Development in India: Government is the problem. What's MOST interesting about the article is the profound sense of ambivalence around the question in the underlying article, which was in the NYT.
  • Government intervention and housing. Do we have proof that the government is the problem? Of course not...the real world is Bayesian. But it's beginning to look more certain that the government intervention is the problem, not the solution.

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Sentence Fragment oTD

Eric Crampton:
On the three days a week I'm an anarchist,

Kin Selection and Organizations

Without interacting much with the truth-value of group-selection...there is nonetheless a rather devastating proof of the extent to which kin-selection crowds out group selection in many circumstances.

Definitions from la wik:
  • group selection refers to the idea that alleles can become fixed or spread in a population because of the benefits they bestow on groups, regardless of the alleles' effect on the fitness of individuals within that group.
  • By kin selection I mean the evolution of characteristics which favour the survival of close relatives of the affected individual, by processes which do not require any discontinuities in the population breeding structure.
  • reciprocal altruism is a behaviour whereby an organism acts in a manner that temporarily reduces its fitness while increasing another organism's fitness, with the expectation that the other organism will act in a similar manner at a later time.

Basically...the question is: Do we see (in animals) actions that are ACTUALLY actions promoting the survival/health of a group, as opposed to (a) promoting self-interest in a delayed manner, or (b) promoting the survival of relatives.

Proof:
Suppose that animal A is a group-selector, and animal B is only a kin selector. All other factors equal. Over large numbers of actions, then animal A and/or his descendants end up with fewer resources, as B doesn't help A, but A does help B. Then animal A will under-reproduce B, by a measurable margin, and over time, we can expect gene-based group selection to become extinct.

Dispute:
There is some dispute as to whether groups under long-term intense survival limits, wherein coordinated activity is essential to survival, can evolve group-selecting processes...as groups that don't evolve them go extinct...while random selection could spread them through a small group rather quickly...The evolutionary cost might be low enough that other accidentally associated traits could move stuff through the group. ALSO, there's some discussion of whether you can get cultural group selection in humans, as group belonging is survival-essential and group facing behaviors can become prerequisite to group-belonging.

However, it's close to true that if the external environment isn't your primary competitor...group selection fails.

Claim:
The same logic necessitates Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy. IF an organization isn't under intense selective pressure...then group-benefiting behavior strategies die out. People do precisely as much to benefit the group/company as necessary, and mostly act to benefit themselves. ALSO, people acting to benefit the company, rather than to benefit themselves lose out in corporate survival (promotions), because they are looking out for their own interests LESS than others, ceteris paribus.

IF an organization is stable, it will act to perpetuate/expand the power of it's leaders first, and for ALL other goals much lower. Some unstable organizations have different goals. But only unstable organizations.

Monday, June 6, 2011

The protectionist thing

AFAICT...it's moronic. Yes...I'm aware that some smart people believe it...and yet, some smart people believe that all races have the same average IQ. Only way to believe either one, as far as I can tell, is to be precommitted to some pretty crazy notions. But...I'm wrong often enough...Something must make sense somewhere.

Foseti, for example links approvingly to a mind-numbing piece by Joseph Dantes saying roughly: Because Entrepreneurs are the only ones producing value, and they don't need the rest of our help to build value, we should imprison them in this country and milk them like cows for the benefit of everyone else...and badly harm all the poor countries as well, while hurting ourselves moderately 1. Morally odious in the extreme. 2. Factually wrong.



There are 10 Albanians and 10 Bulgarians.
Albanians spend one unit of time to make 3 xylophones or 4 yoyos
Bulgarians spend one unit of time to make 4 xylophones or 5 yoyos.

If the Albanians all work for 1 unit of time half on each job, they'll have 15 xylophones and 20 yoyos.

If the Bulgarians all work for 1 unit of time, they'll have 20 xylophones and 25 yoyos.

total wealth is 35 x and 45 y

On the other hand...if 9 of the Bulgarians make xylophones, and everyone else makes yoyos, total wealth is 36x+ 45y...total wealth has increased by 1 xylophone per time unit...and so long as trade is allowed, this is a strictly better situation. Of course, any noticeable tariff at all, from either A, or B, and the extra created X won't be created.

If the numbers are 3X or 4Y and 40X or 50y (400x or 500y) the situation changes not at all. By Bulgarians specializing in xylophones, and Abanians specializing in yoyos...everyone is better off.

CASE 2:
Chuck trades with Debbie. Chuck gives Debbie llamas, and Debbie gives Chuck monkeys. One day Debbie says...why don't you just give me a promise for llamas...you can have the monkeys today...but I don't need the llamas yet. Who's lost? Again...as far as I can tell, everyone wins. Chuck has a whole farmyard of critters...and Debbie has some comfort in knowing that she can exchange her IOU with Chuck for some number of monkeys when she needs some.

CASE 3:
Dr. Evil has One Meeelion Dollars, but doesn't know what to do with it. He invests it in Austin Powers' new dental hygeine business. Who loses? Again, no one.

CASE 4:
But now, someone wants to tell me that combining cases 1,2, and 3 together sucks?
Debbie in Albania trades xylophones for yoyos, and then doesn't accept yoyos from Chuck...but rather takes the payment in Bulgarian Lev. Since Lev are no good in Albania, she then instead invests the money in Bulgaria, thus further improving Bulgaria's growth, but hoping for a better ROI than she could get in Albania. What sucks here? ESPECIALLY, for Buglaria, where there's less demand for yoyos, but more money to spend somewhere else?


CASE 5:
Eddie employs 500 workers making Widgets, each one creating two widgets a day, and getting paid one widget a day. Frank builds a robot from his broken Roomba that can make 1000 Widgets a day, and starts building widgets, which he starts selling. He pays 5 widgets a day in repair costs.
Gertrude builds a boat from her broken XK8 and carries raw materials to Munchkinland, where they build 1000 widgets a day, which she starts selling back home. She pays 2 widgets a day in wages, and 3 in transport costs.
At the end of the week, E is going out of business. F + G are getting rich fast, making widgets...everyone who uses widgets is thrilled because the price of widgets is dropping so fast they can afford to hire folks to do other things. the 500 workers lose their jobs. Widgets, which used to cost a whole day's wage, are now used to mop floors because they're so cheap, and everyone in the country's standard of living goes up by $50/week because of the surplus of widgets.

Are we opposed to Gertrude but not to Frank? Again...that's insane. Only difference is that Gertrude is helping the poor folks in Munchkinland and Frank isn't.

CASE 6:
Eddie preempts Gertrude by closing the local shop first and opening his new shop in Munchkinland. Is this worse, somehow? Poppycock.

CASE 7:
Gertrude spends none of her Widget Wealth, but puts it all in the bank, thus driving down the price of money.

CASE 8:
Gertrude spends all her Widget wealth, thus putting it all back into circulation, just as before, but now goods cost less overall.

CASE 9:
Gertrude burns her Widget Wealth in an eco-friendly bonfire, ensuring that not even any baby seals are harmed by the conflagration. Effects...Total social wealth goes up substantially (Widgets which used to cost 1 day's wage now cost $3).


I've looked at all the cases that I normally hear nonsense about from protectionists. As far as I can see...there is NOTHING to protectionism besides disliking foreigners.

Libertarian Intuitions

One of the fundamental intuitions that the libertarian has in which (s)he differs from others is that they are not shocked by results like this one. Removal of explicit top down rules makes for better interactions even in as simple of a case as traffic rules. Stop signs, and the legal formalization of rules, are a harmful intervention in many (most?) cases. This as a sideways response to what I think is Illka's mistaken anti-anti-drugwar position. Of course, I still think the hyper-status-ful anti-drug-war report from the weekend is some of the biggest pro-libertarian news in a long time.

Sunday, June 5, 2011

Conservativism vs. Leftism

Conservativism holds that the stable traditions we have, including respect for authority are usually the combined wisdom of the ages, and ought be respected.
Leftism holds that the stable traditions we have, including respect for authority, are often nefarious tools of social control by which elites disempower the masses.

Both are often right.

Friday, June 3, 2011

What a fabulous job

Sarah Palin's bait-designer. This is NO coincidence. She's playing Reagan/Shrub "I ain't so smart" and intentionally making faux missteps that will annoy the hell out of the literati on the left...but which will, on further research turn out to be correct. WTF? Who plays the game this deep? Did she play that in Alaska?

UPDATE:
Once is an accident, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action?

Progressivism

These last few posts around left-libertarianism have me thinking.

What possible rationale can a liberal give for opposing relatively unbridled capitalism?
  1. They're really conservative, and they'd rather things just stay the way they are. Capitalism changes stuff fast, and unpredictably, and that's not cool.
  2. They don't understand that capitalism creates wealth, and is thus better for the poor than anything else.
  3. They want status to accrue to their people, not to the (gauche) folks who make stuff.
  4. They misunderstand governments relationship to corporations...they think that governments sometimes weaken the dangerous big corporations, rather that ALWAYS strengthening them.
  5. They want to be the boss, and tell folks what is good for them, just like the conservatives do...though they disagree about what is good.
  6. They misunderstand wealth as fixed, rather than created entirely by mostly disruptive innovation.
Short answer...I'm failing to see how progressives aren't all left-libertarians excepting that they are undereducated about economics, bamboozled by corporations, demonstrating unthinking tribal solidarity, or power-hungry.

What will be scarce

From a comment in a different thread:

wobbly asks:
What will be scarce in the future.

As I've noted in the past...I consider Julian Simon's work to be among the most revolutionary ever done. His fundamental thesis is:
Non-renewable resources are NEVER scarce for long.

If you take this seriously...you run into a crazy position (along with Simon), that I agree with: the only shortage that is even sane to talk about is a shortage in innovation.

Shortages in innovation come from 2 places:
1. Insufficiently many minds (underpopulation)
2. Crappy regulatory structures.

Now...if you stack Drexler's conservative hypothesis (When a desktop computer has somewhat more than the computing power of a human brain, it will be roughly as able to innovate as a human brain, regardless of whether we call it intelligence)... that leaves running out of resources subject to exactly one constraint:

Bad Government.

If you further include Mancur Olsen...the problem is that existing interest groups capture the regulatory apparatus in order to solidify their own relative standing, thus slowly killing innovation. I'm personally creeping towards the conclusion that Cowen's great stagnation is (a) true, and (b) the necessary result of ever increasing numbers of regulations put out by government agencies...which has happened under every regime ever built (Including recently Singapore). The problem, unsurprisingly, is then:

Too Much Government.

If we can restrain it...we don't have resource constraints. If we can't, we do.

In case no one was watching...

Energy scarcity as a physical constriant just died:
In the meantime, it appears that the prophets of an age of renewable energy following Peak Oil got things backwards. We may be living in the era of Peak Renewables, which will be followed by a very long Age of Fossil Fuels that has only just begun.
Of course...this is most likely wrong in predicting the future. My bet on the 50-years out future is that Solar energy, with efficiencies increasing with silicon chips crosses the fossil fuel cost barrier in 20 +/- 10 years...and in 50 years, fossil fuels will be hopelessly expensive forms of energy as compared to cheap solar. Of course, I too am wrong...but that's because 50 years is a metric ass-ton of time in innovation cycles...and something else will likely displace solar as even better.

Thursday, June 2, 2011

Lockean Proviso

I hadn't known it was called that, but here's the discussion from T.B. Lee on where property rights come from:
[Locke says]:

Though the earth, and all inferior creatures, be common to all men, yet every man has a property in his own person: this no body has any right to but himself. The labour of his body, and the work of his hands, we may say, are properly his. Whatsoever then he removes out of the state that nature hath provided, and left it in, he hath mixed his labour with, and joined to it something that is his own, and thereby makes it his property. It being by him removed from the common state nature hath placed it in, it hath by this labour something annexed to it, that excludes the common right of other men: for this labour being the unquestionable property of the labourer, no man but he can have a right to what that is once joined to, at least where there is enough, and as good, left in common for others.

In Anarchy, State, and Utopia, Robert Nozick dubbed this last caveat the Lockean Proviso. Taken literally, the proviso doesn’t make much sense. Surely, American property claims didn’t all become illegitimate the day the frontier closed and there was no longer land “left in common for others” to homestead.

Still, I think the proviso captures an important moral intuition. The legitimacy of a property rights system depends on it being open to everyone
Later:
Land ownership has been so decentralized for so long that we aren’t in the habit of thinking of it as an issue of liberty. But it is. A real estate market in which three landlords owned all the land would be less free than a real estate market with 3000 landlords. And the same is true of most other natural resources.
RTWT

By Request

Someone recently asked why everyone only refers to crime statistics back until the '50s. I'd point at this graph from Tabarrok to remind us that in crime, just as in basically everything else, the world is almost monotonically improving over the last 400 years

PoTD

Warren Meyer:
The role of government in throttling entrepreneurship has been evident for years, in the enormous differentials between US and European business startup rates. Historically, the US has had entrepeneurship rates 3-4 times higher than in the large European industrial countries, due in large part to the barriers these latter countries place in the way of business creation. But the US, with its current bi-partisan drive towards a corporate state, may soon be engaged in a race to the bottom with these other countries.
Regulation is good for big business...because it prevents competition from smaller startups.

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Philosophy is wrong -- 5 Theses

Can I post a more audacious line? It would be hard, I think. First, many of the best thinkers of the past 3000 years in the West have attacked the questions of philosophy. Second...I, an obscure blogger in a corner of the blogosphere, am claiming that much/most/all of the history of philosophy is simply bad thinking.

Claim 0:
The primary questions in philosophy are epistemological.

Claim 1:
He who frames the question wins the argument.

Claim 2:
Whitehead was right:
The safest general characterization of the European philosophical tradition is that it consists of a series of footnotes to Plato.
Claim 3:
Plato asked the wrong questions. Everyone since has tried to answer them. Hume changed the rules. Kant re-laid the foundations for an answer. Neitzche answered a different question. Yes, I'm being very glib.
Claim 4:
Plato's error is in placing truth at the center of the discussion.
Claim 5:
Fundamentally, epistemology must be the question: what should we believe...which is an ENTIRELY different, much bigger, and much better question than the question of truth.
Indeed...if the question is approached first from a what should we believe...we are freed from the blinding assumptions:
  1. What we should believe is the true rather than the good
  2. What we should believe should match the underlying reality
  3. Belief is purposeless
  4. Truth/underlying reality is accessible
This framework accommodates Neitzche nicely. Plato's framework is helpless.

Of course, the mathematical treatment of probability is only 350 years old...and the mathematical treatment of uncertainty is only 250 years old.

Should I say, instead, that epistemology/philosophy is a subdiscipline of the question: what should we believe, and mostly starting from overnarrow and wrong assumptions.

Nock on Education

I read Albert Jay Nock again today. This time on education. And I understand, now, both precisely how conservative he actually was, and where his whole approach differs from mine.

As far as I can tell...Nock believes in a right answer. He falls prey to the philosophers' error of searching first for truth...and believing that there is a historical truth. He is from a different age...when all clear-thinking people knew many of the same things...and not tempered by the modern questioning of received wisdom. The tradition from Plato to Nock is ~2500 years old. Nock lives in it's flow. What happens, though, when someone knows the tradition and finds it lacking? I don't think the possibility occurs to Nock.

He is witty. He is erudite. He is unabashedly elitist. He is scathing in his critique of vulgarity, modernity, and especially Americanism. And he is fundamentally certain of his stance in a way that no sane modern person can be.

The book was a good read...well worth thinking on. And the book purports to ask a question that is not being asked elsewhere...and does so. However...that's because Nock's question is irrelevant.

Status groups and Politics

I was reading some bit on Nancy Pelosi's response to Weiner's panty-pix, and was struck by how unsurprising it was that group affiliation trumps principles. Indeed... if one is an Aretaevian thinker, one recognizes that principles are (at p=.01 confidence) primarily mechanisms for demonstrating group allegiance...and not reasons for doing anything.

My next thought was of the formalists' anti-politics stance. I still have trouble understanding the position. Given:
  1. There are genuine disagreements between factions of people -- Consumers benefit universally and substantially from free trade. Producers suffer a mild cost. One of the huge North/South disputes pre-civil war was that the Confederates wanted free trade, but that the Northerners, dominated by monied interests, wanted to force the Southerners to buy Northern goods rather than English/French goods. The confederate constitution, among other less savory practices, prohibited government interference with free trade.
  2. Regulation universally favors one group over another group, as compared with the status quo. The group favored is almost universally the group involved with writing the regulation.
  3. The libertarian paradigm says correctly that every act of government is someone pointing guns at you, and saying "Or Else".
How then do we oppose politics? We'd like everyone to pretend that their primary allegiance is to the nation-state group, rather than to a political group, or a racial group, or something...while still working for factional interests by trying to convince the king/prince/exec that theirs is the better way? The reality is that the factional interests are there...and that they are trying to shift government to benefit themselves.

I can understand a corporate-style design of a state, perhaps...but the question of monarchy substantially improving anything is simply baffling.

QoTD

Murray Rothbard, via Mises EconBlog:
It is no crime to be ignorant of economics, which is, after all, a specialized discipline and one that most people consider to be a “dismal science.” But it is totally irresponsible to have a loud and vociferous opinion on economic subjects while remaining in this state of ignorance.

Article oTD

David Brooks (HT: Isegoria):
This year’s graduates are members of the most supervised generation in American history. Through their childhoods and teenage years, they have been monitored, tutored, coached and honed to an unprecedented degree.

Yet upon graduation they will enter a world that is unprecedentedly wide open and unstructured.