Who predicts the future successfully for a living?
I assert that we have a great deal of study of 3 distinct groups, each of whom depends for their livelihood on the ability to predict the future.
- Scientists (also, applied scientists like Engineers, Doctors, Programmers)
- Gamblers (also, otherly named gamblers like Investors, Actuaries, VC's, etc.)
- Children (Kids spend their first 10 years in an almost constant state of trying to make sense of their world...well, and get what they want)
- Everyone sucks at predicting new and complex stuff, all the time.
- Specifically, untested theory is almost always wrong. It isn't quite right to suggest that anyone pushing a theory without it having been tested should automatically be assumed to be wrong...but it's not that wrong either.
- Aside...can one model mathematics (esp. advanced maths) as being an exploration of the space of all possible patterns? So as to be more able to recognize the patterns when they appear elsewhere? This would solve Einstein's question about why math describes the world.