Strangely, I find I have very little to say right now. Perhaps the topics just suck right now, but for now, I feel a bit like I've said my piece.
We're all wrong a lot.
Modular monkeybrains.
Envy > Greed
Politics is all tribe, and all of the justifications are ex post facto.
Rates not states.
Iterate your way out.
Wealth (growth) is the only social metric.
Learning is 90% motivation, 9% practice, 1% other.
Talk in distributions.
Beliefs are either probabilities, and should change often, or tribal, and shouldn't change. Best way to check that is how often the belief changes.
Ethics is complicated, but should probably be understood descriptively as a brain module solving for long-term success... and prescriptively we haven't done much better.
Probably my disillusionment is the fact that I'm fully anti-tribal in my values, and 99% of the internet is devoted to individuals opposing the enemy tribes. I'll probably get over it.
Expect me offline for a week or two.
The virtue of excellence
Friday, March 2, 2012
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Most beliefs don't change because they are near-100% or 0% probabilities, and we round. For example I believe the sun will rise tomorrow.
It is only the beliefs near 50% that are likely to change valence, and these we tend to not to call "beliefs" anyway. I.e., I may say that I "believe" Apple stock will rise above its current level -- but I don't really believe such a thing in the same way as my faith in the new day. It's a speculation.
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