The virtue of excellence
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
Sports and randomness
OKC just beat the Spurs in game 6, in one of the best basketball series we've seen in some years. 2 very very good teams playing very close basketball. In 4/6 games (all but game 2+3) the Spurs and the Thunder were roughly one 50% shot away from a win. Game 5, which I saw, had Harden shoot a 3 with 15 seconds left. It was about a 50% shot. If Harden makes it...OKC wins. If he misses...probably San Antonio. He made it. Same on 4/6 games in the series. I call the series as 1 solid win for each team, and 4 coin tosses that OKC won 3 of. Great basketball. Excellent play from OKC. I didn't think anyone could stay within striking distance of the spurs for 4 games....and they did it for 4, and won 1. Amazing play by the kids. But it's always useful to remember that sports is a game that involves a substantial quantity of luck...and this time, luck was on the side of OKC. If SA had won 3/4...I might not have had the perspicacity to remember that, because I was (and am) so enamored of how good of a BB team they have been. I highly doubt that the finals will be so close.
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Randomness is a feature, not a bug.
In the real world outliers don't really matter to the overall direction of society. All outliers eventually revert to the mean. But in sports, for one brief moment, it doesn't matter.
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