The virtue of excellence

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

The Aretae endeavor

In Tyler Cowen's (retitled) terminology, I am an infovore.  I prefer physical starvation to information-starvation.  Thoughts are the primary substance with which I feed my "soul"...and food is a side issue.  "If you have money, buy books.  If you have any left over, buy food and clothing" is not far from describing my natural state.

In Simon Baron Cohen's terminology, I am a systemizer.  I am thoroughly uncomfortable with disconnected facts.  Rather, I look at all of knowledge as being related, connected, and fundamentally unitary.  It's a mental discomfort when ANY datum in my awareness doesn't comport with everything else I know.

So...my core task is to take in ALL the information I can find, and build a single mental model/map that explains the whole thing...

I think I have a tolerably coherent position, and that it's rather explanatory...and furthermore, I think that substantial deviations from my basic coherent position lead to problems elsewhere.

My mental model/map is defined fairly completely by a small set of conclusions:
  1. Error.  Coping with error, uncertainty, and variation is THE epistemological problem.
  2. Feedback.  Feedback LOOPS are THE epistemological solution.  Induction, Evolution, Lean, Science.
  3. The Good.  Prior to truth.  Also, backwards meta-ethics, and anthropology a la Haidt.
  4. Human minds are MonkeyBrains™ with a tiny add (consciousness), and huge amount of self-delusion.  
  5. Innovation.  Innovation ~= Economic Growth, which is the solution to all (not some) social issues.  
The problem that I have is that some folks want to posit stuff that actively conflicts with the entire, simple model...and the posit-ions (positions??) are incoherent in my model of the world.  Measured data?  I can live with.  Crazy explanatory theories?  Much less so.  Indeed...crazy explanations are moderately offensive to my aspie-nature.

As Yudkowsky has occasionally pointed out...Attempting to attack evolution is equivalent to saying that modern medicine doesn't work...but modern medicine does work...so your attack on evolution sucks.  All of belief is a single interconnected web.  Pulling on ANY strand messes with the whole structure.  It just isn't possible to add a disconnected component...or remove a component without massive cascades.

Hence...my interest in foundational epistemology.  Start from nothing...what do you conclude.

Monday, January 30, 2012

QoTD

Instapundit:
"IS IT PARENTAL MALPRACTICE TO PUT YOUR KID IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS?"
And in homage to Instapundit's approach to simple questions...
Yes.   What else.

Testing Comments

I removed the requirement to be signed in to comment.  If I get too much Spam, I'll pursue a different solution.

4 folks I like talking to have failed comments, and I didn't see another low-cost test solution.

"Try something", observe results, iterate.

Everyone has faith in something

It's said an awful lot...but for most of my life, I've been without a convincing response.  No longer.

"I have no faith, no transcendent truth, no such silliness...just a current best guess with error bars so big, the error bars have error bars"

Atheism, links and thinks

Orphan here.
Spandrell here.

As a philosopher...the most interesting discussions are the ones that move backwards rather than forwards.  Ask a question "How do people know they are in love?"...and a "good" philosophy discussion will end up asking "what is love?",  "What constitutes knowledge?"

The Aretae contention is that the backwards root of ALL (truth) questions is epistemological...and the mother of all questions is: "How do I choose what to believe?"

The Aretae answer to the question is also rather simple:  Empiricism:  Observe, and induct.

The stardard philosophical barrier to the Empiricist approach is the superb David Hume....who demonstrated conclusively that one cannot arrive at induction by way of deduction.

And the Aretae answer is that Hume has it backwards.  One must arrive at deduction by way of induction, not the other way around.

In simple terms, you get the primal feedback loop:

Observe the world...
Use various methods to make guesses (about the future)
Observe the success rate of various methods under various circumstances
Take information about the methods success & failure rate to choose the best methods, and refine them,
repeat.

The core (rule zero) Aretae claim:
 
NOTHING predicts well in any complex system.
Science predicts some stuff about the world moderately well in a statistical fashion.
Complex deductions, applied to normal language, predicts ALMOST nothing.

Therefore, the Platonic/Aristotelian/Thomistic METHOD itself has sufficiently low epistemic justification that we should dispense with it altogether.


Linky Part II


  • Jehu:  Honest Graft
  • Devin:  The Destruction of Urban Life
  • Hanson:  the Research on Brainstorming.  Verdict:  FAIL.
  • Sailer:  Social impact on measured IQ?  Turns out we see the same thing in low-caste Indians and Black Americans.
  • Oz Conservative brings the conservative.  In his discussion, he links to a very good point:  Serious autonomy (economic) for women isn't actually possible without birth control & abortion.  
  • The Monkey Cage:  Corporations work like countries...and basically like BBdM says.  Explains some/much corporate failure.
  • BHL opposes inequality-targeting.
  • Crampton:  What do lots of highly research-driven economists agree on?  If you don't take this seriously...if it doesn't shift your opinions...your thinker is broken and you don't understand epistemology.
  • Sonic Charmer on Prop Trading.
  • Hanson on inequality in the future.
  • Raymond on AGW and IQ.  Some gloating on the AGW thing...old news on IQ.  AGW thing not as well thought as normal, because he's feasting on the hearts of his enemies.  
  • Todd on The Iceman.  This is my favorite article of the month.
  • Slashdot says study habits research contradicts common knowledge.
  • Borepatch links to FEMA vs. Texas
  • Arnold Kling maintains phenomenally Hayekian humilty.  This is a case study for how to think about ANYTHING.  If you don't think with this level of humility...you need more practice thinking.



Linky Part I

I thought that the weekend was chock full of bloggery goodness.  Here's my roundup:


Friday, January 27, 2012

Feedback Systems Watch -- Education

Given that it's "School Choice Week", Education is a good stop for our next feedback systems analysis.

What systems of feedback do we need to watch in the education space?


  • Learner-Solution:  The killer feedback loop is the feedback system between the student and the problem.  All other solutions are subsidiary to this...but getting this going is tough.
  • Teacher-Topic:  The 2nd feedback loop in the standard education model is between the teacher, the topic, and the learning outcomes.  Do we change what or how we're teaching, based on how well the students learn?
  • Administrator-Outcomes:  The 3rd feedback loop in the standard education model is between the administrator's choices, and the learning outcomes.  The most recognized bit here is administrator's capability to fire teachers.  But it's bigger than that.  How much learning does $1000 of computer investment buy, as compared to an extra $1000 investing in teachers.
  • $-School:  The 4th feedback loop in the standard model is when parents discover that the administrator is failing to educate their particular student, and move the student to a different school.  Alternatively, the superintendent/state discovers that a school isn't working, and replaces the administrator.
  • Learning-Goal:  A sometimes underappreciated feature of feedback loops is that they are primarily valuable when you have a goal.  No goal...it's awful hard to tell if you're getting there.  In the 1800s, the Germans developed the modern school system in order to teach obedience to soldiers and factory workers because the under-schooled did not have the requisite obedience to nominal authority figures...and their soldiers had lost badly to Napoleon.  So...does the method of schooling that does not accomplish the goal of schooling get replaced?
How do they stack up?
  • Montessori is still the only big player in the learner-solution feedback loop.  No one else seems to get it. Marginally, the DI folks...but not as clearly as Maria.
  • Teacher-topic?  Most teachers do, very slowly.  However, teaching experience doesn't get shared as much as it can.  I think Kahn Academy works in this space.
  • Administrator-Outcome?  I think it's illegal.  The teacher's union is the big-evil here.
  • $-School.  Fully broken.  The purpose of school choice is to fix this feedback loop.  It's a really good idea to have at least 1 working feedback system.
  • Learning-Goal:  There is much hand-wringing, and NO action on this point.
Unsurprisingly, I support school choice.  I even more strongly support bailling on the whole mid-1800s German obedience training  for peasants model.  But school choice (with the important point allowing schools and their associated teachers to fail/go out of business) would at least resurrect 1 of the feedback systems.  Of course it's not THAT simple.  So long as the district owns all the schools...and teachers impact learning quality (We estimate that a 2 sigma teacher is worth ~1 sigma of IQ)....and union rules require the district to keep long-tenured teachers on regardless of quality....you won't get massive improvement in-district.  However, private schools will work to solve.

Another monster issue in education is that undert he current system, the feedback system to the parent is massively masked.  IQ + Teacher Quality + School Quality + Peer effects + etc....it becomes very hard to tease real causal relationships out...and the individual parent is almost at the point of pure guesswork.  Proxying student-happiness and Learning Outcomes are about as good as one can do.

And so I exhort:  Support school choice.  Private schools or homeschooling.  Not only are you saving your own children, you are marginally fixing the feedback-free system, which helps everyone.


The Grand other-minds error

There is a way of thinking that is roughly universal among human beings...that also happens to be painfully wrong.  I'm sure there are actually lots of these horrid things...but I want to focus on a relatively-smart-people problem today.  The problem:

  • I am certain of this
Does not imply either of the following
  • It is true
  • It is clear to someone else with an even slightly different start point.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

A 4th perspective on ethics

I've come out in the past as a relatively strong fan of (a) Jon Haidt's moral analysis (b) evo-psych analyses of ethics, and (c) David Schmidtz brand of back-referential meta-ethics.  Yesterday, driving home from San Jose, I listened to a Russ-Roberts Econtalk podcast that gave me a 4th model of ethics:  What ethics are necessary to have a society that improves the lives of its citizens?

In a very short analysis...here's how it goes:

1.  In order for wealth, you need division of labor
2.  If you have division of labor, you encounter (infinitely?) many situations where CEO has knowledge of option A, but Manager has knowledge of ascending options ABC, which the CEO cannot know about.
3.  For division of labor to work, the CEO needs to expect that the Manager will use his knowledge of option C to better the company.
4.  This doesn't work without real, justified trust in the other members of society.
5.  Trust is complicated, and there are prerequisites to trust.
6.  One prerequisite to trust is:  Rule-based behavior, NOT Act-based behavior.  (Rule utilitarianism, virtue ethics, and deontological ethics all pass this test.  Act-utilitarianism notably doesn't)
7.  Another prerequisite to trust is: negative rules trump positive rules.

Quick analysis...very interesting.  I would think that my reactionary friends online would get a lot of mileage out of the position.

The Epistemology Problem

Most folks want to use epistemology as a way of justifying what they already "know" to be true.  The challenge instead is to find an epistemology that lets us discover what is true, and allows us to update our beliefs when we find out that we were wrong.  I argue that the best of these is an anti-certaintist inductive bayesian empiricism.  Indeed, I think we are specifically scientifically justified in accepting empiricism, even though I am generally more than a little suspicious of using science to ground philosophy.

Observations:

  • Certainty is a feeling, which is not run by the brain subsystems responsible for logic.  Rather, it's part of the same subsystem that handles love and anger.
  • Deductive conclusions outside of math have a hideous track record.  No sane person could inductively conclude that deducing about the world (absent experimental evidence) is substantially more justifiable than astrology.
  • Induction, with Bayes, gives us NO way to reach logical certainty.  Solution: bail on certainty.
  • People make LOTS of mistakes.  Any epistemology with no error-correction mechanism is broken.
  • We know scientifically that the human logical mind develops as a goal-directed induction-engine.





Apostate Illka

Says Douglas Adams isn't funny.  If I didn't agree, I'd have to post a screed about Illka's complete lack of taste.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Feedback systems watch -- Health Care

 Aretae's 1st law is: The feedback system dominates. 

Being as I'm among the loudest folks on the internet pushing this line...and because I've gotten some feedback (!!!) recently that suggests that this is one of the more valuable services that this blog provides...I'll be attempting to spend more energy looking at data from a feedback systems perspective.

Where are the feedback loops in Health Care, and which ones are working right?
 The available feedback systems that I can see from here:
  1. Individual choices, outcomes:  Eat bread --> get fat.  Exercise --> get healthy, but not thin.  Take Vit.D in the morning and Sleep better that night.
  2. Patient : Doctor system.  Doctor says:  Do X, Patient tries it, Doctor receives info about results
  3. Doctor: Prescription system.  Doctor suggests X...cumulative results cause success 30% of the time, therefore doctor changes pattern.
  4. Patient: $ system.  Patient spends money...solution doesn't work...patient doesn't spend money same way next time...and neither does his brother.
  5. Doctor: $ system.  Doctor who cures illness frequently gets paid better than doctor who doesn't...so the doctor is incented to do things right. 
  6. New treatments feedback system.  
 How many of these feedback loops are operational, powerful, effective.
  1. Choice/Outcome:  The problems with choice/outcome is twofold.  
    1. Choices only lead statistically to outcomes...many results are very hard to figure out...and the pattern-seeking brain generalizes to patterns even when there are none.
    2. It takes work.  Seth Roberts argues that the core feedback loop in Health Care is the individual and what he/she is doing.  Seth-Roberts style 10-minutes of self-testing and record-keeping a day would do more to cure health issues in the world than any other set of health practices imagineable.  10 minutes a day is a lot.
  2. Patient/Doctor:  No feedback at all.  Doctors don't make money from phone consults (because of medicare rules)...therefore there are none.  Someone on my blogroll wrote about this in the last week.  Because visiting the doctor is an ordeal...you don't have a normal-cases feedback system.  Just an extraordinary cases system.
  3. Doctor: Prescription -- Very low feedback.  Doctor prescribes...no results unless it doesn't work badly.  
  4. Patient: $ -- Almost no feedback.  Patient pays insurance company...insurance company pays doctor.  Insurance company increases premiums next year.  Interrupted feedback loops are atrocious.
  5. Doctor: $ --Almost no feedback.  Long term success and payment are unrelated. 
  6. New treatments -- Actively inhibited.  Doctor Licensing and FDA approval form an almost inpenetrable barrier of innovation-resistance.
I'm counting 0/6.

Currently, there is some motion on 1B...which is great.
6 is the super-move...but no way no how is that going to get fixed.  In the absence of 6, the best health-system known to man (Singapore) gets #4 correct, while our 2nd best option is to get #5 correct.  A bad 3rd choice, still better than what we currently have is to replace #4 with state/$ single payer choice.

Any working feedback system, with a rapid rate of: bad results lead to abandoned practices, and new things get tried would be great.  BUT...we have 6 available feedback systems and ALL of them are broken.


QoTD

Via insty:  Mickey Kaus re: SOTU:
About a third of the way through I put it down and switched to reading the ingredients on the granola bar I was eating, just to perk myself up.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Funny oTD

Sonic Charmer:

Endorsement

I hereby endorse Newt Gingrich to win the Republican nomination.  (not predict...haven't figured that out yet...mostly expecting Romney still)

Almost certainly, if Newt wins the nomination, I will remain in my default anarchist state, and actively abstain from the complicity that is voting.  However, the election will be SO much more entertaining with Newt as the candidate that IF you like spectacle, it would be insane not to endorse him.

If I had to vote...I'd probably vote Obama over Newt...for the best of the reasons that Borepatch gives for not supporting Romney...I don't want the Rethuglicans to pass their agenda either, and with Newt, they might. 

OTOH...the positive case for Newt is that
  1. FOUR of the supreme court justices are over 70...Ginsburg, Breyer, Kennedy, Scalia...something like a 4% chance of death on average per year per justice, over the next 8 years, given their ages. 
  2. the party that gets us out of this recession will have their economic ideas gain traction.
  3. Newt is the only (non-zero probability) candidate standing that might do something actually crazy.  Repeal the executive order allowing unionized federal employees.  Unilaterally leave Iraq.  Change the drug laws, or the FDA...push for an HSA-based Medical plan.

Interesting, related:  Mead points out that the early-Abortion and gay-marriage debates are all but settled, in favor of the leftists...with (roughly) ALL young people in favor of early abortions and gay marriage.  This leaves the leftists almost completely free of bogeymen with which to scare libertarian-leaners...like most of the youth in the country. 

Orson Scott Card self-identifies as a conservative Mormon democrat, and endorses Newt (in the second half of the long article). 

Jehu's article on Newt is also good.

More on Induction

How much of foundational epistemology does simply starting with induction solve?  All of it?

If you start with induction...and conclude (very quickly) that deduction predicts well inside math, and rarely predicts outside of math...don't you just win out real fast?

You give up entirely on the notion of certainty...and you adhere pretty fast to the "map, not territory" model.   

The scientific method falls out real fast as a how to purchase information from reality using induction .

Lean/iterative processes fall out almost as fast as you look for improvement methods. 

I'm thinking that this is, while not necessarily shocking or new, the BIG win for epistemology. 

Evolution cycles back around and supports the notion of the inductive mind...

Useful Thinks

  • Drezner against the doom-ists.
  • Caplan pdf pro-immigration.  Key thought process:  "To justifiably restrict migration, you need to overcome the moral presumption in favor of open borders"  And then he shows that it's pretty hard to do so.
  • Caplan brilliantly skewers anti-trust from a novel perspective.
  • Isegoria:  lecture sucks.  I love how Isegoria finds all the research that says I'm right about education.


The Problem of Deduction

(Western) Philosophy from Thales through Aquinas proceeded peaceful and undisturbed over 2000 years.  Then Descartes upset the entire endeavor by asking how do we know about the world?  By attempting, and failing to answer...he opened up the field of inquiry.  Hume's enquiry finished the job, utterly demolishing the pretense of knowledge, and most famously presenting the problem of induction...namely that if you try to justify induction by means of deduction, you cannot.  200 years of failed answers later, Hume seems to have won.  But Hume wasn't radical enough.

I assert that philosophy has it 100% backwards.  They attempt to justify induction using deduction.  In fact, induction is the core process, and decution is a derivation.  Outside of mathematics, induction has better predictivity than deduction.  Properly, we ought not worry at all about the problem of induction.  Induction, instead, is the base.

We should worry about the problem of deduction, and how deduction gets (partially) justified from induction, but almost universally fails in practice.

Monday, January 23, 2012

otDs


  • Caplan -- Schooling & marriage.  Why do we treat them differently?
  • CDC attempts to transcend sanity.
  • McArdle on the future of retail.  
  • Oz conservative gets QoTD:  
    I don't know, I went to a school that prides itself on free thinking and allowing students to make up their own mind, and it's general consensus that the white male has not only dominated the world the last 3 centuries, but that it has caused by far the most suffering against other people, both for women and other cultures and races
  • Group selection still non-predictive (pdf)  HT: Evolutionary Psychology
  • Isegoria cites the "tutoring beats every other option" evidence.  Feedback systems.  Full stop.

Pic

Artsy wife, 2 very cute kids.  Great picture.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

Point about Chaos and Epistemology

Systems modeled mathematically frequently end up in non-linear dynamic systems...frequently referred to as Chaos or Chaotic systems.  For those who are less than perfectly math-geeky...the super-short version of chaos is:  EVEN given starting conditions (to almost any level of precision), and exact rules...there are some cases where you cannot predict the future, even a little ways out.

One standard example is the butterfly and the hurricane, where a butterfly flapping it's wing in Egypt results in a Hurricane that hits North Carolina 8 weeks later.  Basically...the math works out so that incredibly small changes in initial conditions result in massively different final outcomes.

Another standard example is the Mandlebrot set ... a (very pretty) fractal measuring how many iterations a function can be applied to itself, starting with an initial value in the complex plane before its absolute value exceeds some value.

An awful lot of the math in nonlinear dynamics consists of finding those boundaries at which the system has large (infinite?) sensitivity to initial conditions.

I fear that in my discussions of epistemology and statistical prediction, I've neglected to mention (a) my awareness of chaotic systems...and (b) it's obvious relevance to my radical uncertainty.

Consider it mentioned.

Missing Comments

I've heard now from two separate folks (Wobbly, and Sonic Charmer) that they've been unable to leave comments.  At the same time, I've had a bunch of folks leave comments in the last few days.  My email address is listed to the right under my picture.  If you've tried to leave a comment recently, but been rejected...please let me know.

Short summary of Aretae

  1. We're all wrong a lot.
  2. Goals come before truths.  The good > The true
  3. Induction (and statistics) is the only path to truth (predictivity). Those truths are statistical, and the variance is important
    • Good news: If induction teaches you that other choices work as well...that's legit.  
    • Bad news: the only other path that  works as usable truth is math...and it's only inside math.  
    • Good news: Science gives you a regularized method for quickly determining most falsity
    • Bad news:  Complex deductive logic fails the induction test.
    • Good news: The average opinion, (bet-weighted?) is a really cheap, good choice.
    • Good news: Atomic analysis is MUCH stronger than holistic analysis.
  4. Feedback systems FTW.  
    • Measure ONLY the speed and fidelity of the feedback loop...you know the future of the system 
      • ...and probably the present.
      • ...for ALL systems
      • See: evolution, game theory, (micro-) economics, lean, agile, learning, ...
        • Evolution is the best scientific theory ever proposed
        • Lean is the best business mechanism ever proposed
  5. Economic growth rate (per capita) is the only social metric that matters.
    • The first-glance atomic social metric is positive freedom.  
    • Positive freedom REQUIRES wealth and negative freedom
    • People are willing to pay (a lot) for negative freedom
    • Wealth, therefore is the meta-1 metric.
    • Therefore the meta-2 uber-metric is economic growth rate. 
  6. Monkeybrains
    • Introspection doesn't tell us the same thing as watching other people
    • Each of us is basically like other people.
    • Simplest answer:  introspection is wrong.
    • Understand other people via observation...apply to self.
    • Best current model:  
      • evolved modular mind
      • decisions are explained by consciousness, not made by consciousness
      • heavy envy + sex components
      • conscious component evolved actively to be unaware of underlying system.
      • Buddhists would say: "the self is an illusion"
  7. [Update] Wobbly suggests that I need this number to indicate: Summarize a lot.

PoTWeek?

Blunt Object finds it.  RTWT.

Linkfarm


  • Sonic Charmer kindly responds (twice) to the Romer paper:  Takeaway:  "Is this even a thing that needs to be regulated at all? What problem is it solving?".  RTWT.
  • Great link (NYT), commentary around offshoring the iphone by Cowen.  Cowen is wrong, though (I say that very rarely).  The primary value is company wants worker sufficiently poor to boss around.
  • Chris Christie just vaulted to favorite Governor with Gary-Johnson-esque sanity.  Mead.  WSJ.
  • Cowen finds useful thinking on Japan.
  • Balko's top 3 links on Gingrich, who he doesn't like, are hilarious.
  • HBDChick finds the most interesting discussion around evolutionary IQ I've seen in months.  We already know (from prior Aretae noodlings) that heat-dissipation is one of the BIG problems in animals.  We already know that heat dissipation is currently THE big problem in computer chips.  What happens when we think about heat dissipation in the context of brains (HBD warning)?  





Saturday, January 21, 2012

Against Feser

On ImNotHerzog's recommendation...I've been reading the Aristotelian/Thomist scholar Edward Feser for between 6 and 15 months (my memory fails).  I've finally reached an understanding...though after my conclusion, I went out and read some others...some of whom see the problem similarly to me.

I find Feser's critiques of folks like Rosenburg to be relatively solid...you can't play in philosophy by saying: science is all we need to know.

The traditional, Aristotle-Thomas-Rand-Feser notion of philosophy is:  Metaphysics first.  Then Epistemology.  Then Ethics.  Etc.

This approach is wrong, and no longer tenable.  Question number ONE is "how do I go about deciding what to believe".  You CANNOT, after Descartes, start from the place the great thinkers of the past start from.  Thales, Pythagoras, Heraclitus, Parmenides, Plato, Aristotle, and Thomas all (IIRC) start from metaphysics.  The problem is...once you've heard the questions of Descartes and Hume you can't start (in philosophy) from metaphysics any more.  Epistemology is the central question.  Everything else comes after.

Feser seems to be the pre-eminent modern defender of the metaphysics-first approach that Aristotle takes.  If he'd been writing 400 (even 362) years ago...this would have been a marvelous way of thinking...and he'd have been considered brilliant.  Now...it's as if he's writing about health, but missing germ theory.  Sure, you can write very intelligently about health missing germ theory...but not for very long.

I have not yet read Feser's book.  But even some of the sympathetic reviews  (Feser's response) I've read suggest that my analysis above is pretty solid, and I'm likely to encounter the same problem in his book.

Summary position:  Feser starts wrong in philosophy.  Rand, with her superb ability to identify problems with opposing positions (much less woth her own) would have correctly called his approach "intrisicist", as opposed to the also-wrong "subjectivist" or correct "objectivist".  While I find the distinction terribly important, and correctly leveled...I think that the problem is earlier.  Deductive logic is wrong SO often that one cannot rely upon it as a path to truth without feedback systems.  Indeed...even if you don't take the hyper-radical Aretaevian skepticism route...you're still left with the questions of epistemology...and the inductive challenge to deductive logic:  You're wrong a lot, even when you sound right.  Why should I believe you this time?

Philosophers would love to say that the truth is evident...but my feedback system says no.  The feedback system on deductive logic applied to ANYTHING outside of math/formal logic is atrocious, and it's results are at least as bad.  [quibbles about simple physics like orbital calculations ignored].

Reading Differences

I have been reading other folks critiques of works I am very fond of, and I'm somewhat baffled.

  • Here, Edward Feser discusses Dennett in an aside, and suggests: "Daniel Dennett is one naturalist who does not see this, or at least who constantly helps himself to teleological concepts which he cannot successfully “cash out” in naturalistic or non-teleological term".  I consider Dennett's book "Darwin's Dangerous Idea" among the most important books written...and to a significant extent, the book is about how natural english talks in teleological terms, but that's not what's going on.  "Helping himself to teleological concepts" is very distinctly NOT something that I remember to have occurred in the book.
  • Here, Robin Hanson mildly disses my new favorite book.  Also, slightly, here.  My read of the book seems very different than that of Hanson.  I read one of the major theses of the book to be that the mind works better if there is intentional non-coordination.  Kurzan explicitly argues that a press secretary who actually knows what's really going on can't lie as effectively as one kept in the dark...and the press-secretary (consciouness) mind can't lie (be hypocritical) as well if was fully informed.  Hence, hypocrisy is a substantial portion of the purpose of consciousness.  
Why the heck are the readings so different?


Useful Links


  • Bryan Caplan checks the age-adjusted return on sheepskins.  Fascinating.  As someone who does a reasonable amount of interviewing/hiring in the IT industry...I can say that the amount of weight I put on a college degree is precisely zero.  Usually, I don't read the resume that far down.  Years of experience * conversation measured Tech-IQ.  Further and further, the signaling (-only?) model of education seems overwhelming.
  • Envy uber alles:  Henderson finds a paper that measures the laffer curve on capital gains taxes.  Apparently, counting ONLY capital gains (not secondary effects), the curve Maximum is just under 10%.  RTWT.  
  • David Brin has a great BIG list of good sci-fi.  his list is far better than the Reader's Digest one...what with being a sci-fi author and all.
  • Robin Hanson praising religion.  As per my recent fights with ImNotHerzog...it's pretty clear that religious people are happier.  I'm moderately convinced that it's MOSTLY community + gratitude effects.  I'm also convinced that for maximum hedonic benefit from religion, one should be either Mormon or Buddhist...with Mormonism maximizing near-term happiness for relatively low life cost (silly beliefs about magic underwear and sky gods), and Buddhism's meditation practices maximizing long-term joy at relatively high life cost (compassion meditation practice for 20 years).  A goals-first kinda guy like me doesn't dispute the utility of religion...just the truthiness.
  • Casanocha asks the question -- How do you deal with high talent folks who very simply will have other, better opportunities in the future.  Great think
  • Isegoria finds important numbers:  The real job market is informal, with no resumes, and only personal recommendations.  At 80% of the market.

Friday, January 20, 2012

The modern problem

All socioeconomic problems (+/- 3 %) are caused by too little patience....too much impulsivity.
All reproductive success problems among the upper classes are caused by too much patience...too little impulsivity. 

Is it that simple?

Mockery is the best Medicine

"Cougars" is an insensitive mascot name ... because of the obvious reason?  I think they should rename themselves the gold-diggers.

PoTD

Bloody Shovel is dangerously close to joining Robin Hanson on my list of -- don't link to, because everyone with an IQ over room temperature (celcius)  -- should be reading him.

Again, with the fiction of the nation.

Links


  • Blunt Object links to Popehat on SOPA and Citizen's United.  Wonderful.
  • Bryan Caplan gets confused by the unitary mind hypothesis, but otherwise asks a good ethics question.
  • AtomicNerds points us at Anonymous's Twitter feed around the MegaUpload shutdown.  I approve.
  • Sailer asks if schoolteachers are really that dumb.  An ex-employer of mine, Lindamood Bell, once did a reading skills study in a random rural missouri county.  The results:  
    • %age of adults with under 6th grade reading level:  30%.  
    • %age of K-4 teachers with under a 6th grade reading level:  60%
    Having put myself through college tutoring (mostly other college students and mostly math)...I can say that apart from the folks labeled disabled (the guy on his 4th retake of Remedial Algebra), the folks in the Teacher's Master's program were the least capable of abstract thinking and math of any group I ever worked with...except the folks in the Preschool-Teacher (developmental psychology) group who were being amazed by learning the math that Montessori's materials taught.  Indeed, the complete lack of ability to think among (most of) the students was a substantial part of why I don't have an education degree.
  • Tyler Cowen crosslinks the Fermi paradox and simulations.  Hanson disagrees?  The Aretae position is that the simulation argument is massively less certain than anyone talking about it, because we don't actually know if heavy-duty sims are possible.  If they aren't...p=???...then the whole sim-argument is dead.  But no one actually knows if they are or not.  It may be that the great filter prevents sims.  
  • Tyler also links to Paul Romer on dynamic rules.  I'm interested in Sonic Charmer's take...as his comments on financial regulation are nearly always of top-quality.
  • Mead on the reality of drug-war whackamole.  I remain completely befuddled by the notion that the net value of the drug war could possibly be anything but massively negative.
  • Susan Walsh is smart.
  • Insty links to a discussion of business in US vs. Singapore.


Thursday, January 19, 2012

Double-entendre songs question

I'm not MUCH of a music buff...I can hum or sing along with most of what's referred to today as Classic Rock, or turn-of-the-century Country music, as well as bits of other genres...And I know the names of a lot of artists.  However...there's like 8 total artists I can identify as belonging to a song...and about 3 that I can identify by musical style...but then again, how many of us can't identify if a new song is a Rush song or not....

Having said that...I was thinking about the way we process words just now...and having personal experience with imperfect auditory processing...as I'm 40, and like every single adult on my dad's side of the family, my hearing is declining.

How do we process words?  We get a sequence of sounds...often jumbled...and then we guess what was meant.  I am told that when I was 4, I mis-parsed the children's song "Two little dickie birds"... and remained unconvinced for a week, during which my parents tried to tell me that the 2nd dude was named Paul, not Paw.  Certainly, I do that all the darn time now, and so do the people I talk to.  1 person attempts to say a set of words...a set of sounds get emitted...2nd person guesses what words the sounds are supposed to be, with boatloads of context.  Frequently, gets it wrong.

Ok...so we make mistakes in hearing all the time.

Does anyone know if anyone has written a song that was formally a nice song, but very easy to hear the whole song a different way?

For instance, one could write a baseball song, with a subtext gangsta-rap...slight variation in the pronunciation of the p...

I'm gonna get that (p)itch

A) has anyone done the double entendre song?
B) can you think of anyone smart/talented enough to?

UPDATE:  Just to be clear...I'm looking for songs that have one set of lyrics on paper, but an entirely different set of lyrics that could (intentionally) be mis-heard...preferably subversive.

Foundational Epistemology -- part VIII

Question identification is the key problem. Indeed, tracking questions, and the implicit assumptions can do most of the work of much of our thinking.

For instance...

  • Diana Hsieh points out here that Descartes assumes a great deal about the nature of consciousness at the beginning of his Meditations.  Specifically, he assumes (IMO, incorrectly) that a mind can know about itself without knowing about the external world.
  • Most questions about meaning assume that meaning isn't a feature of consciousness...but rather a feature of the world.
  • Most questions about cause (or Why) ignore the fact that the english word Cause has many distinct meanings.  Why did you go to the store isn't the same kind of question as Why is the sky blue.  
  • Most questions about groups are incoherent / unanswerable as posed.  Why did the Nation decide?  The nation didn't decide.  The president and/or congress decided.  Why did the people vote for Barack Obama?  Well...something between 25 and 30% of the eligible voters in the country voted for Obama.  Ask individuals and find out.  Why did the fluid move the way it did?  Statistical Mechanics...run statistics on the probable behavior of the individual atoms.
  • Who should lead?  Assumes someone should lead...that the group should go in the same direction, and that "should" has some usefulness in context...

When thinking carefully, look for assumptions embedded in the question first.  Check for answers FAR later.

Important Thinks


  • Caplan on Charles Murray's book -- what's interesting is that most of the people I read agree on most / almost all of the data...and draw different conclusions from it.  More here.
  • Falkenstein on deception.
  • Horowitz on Left-Libertarianism
  • Kling on MIT Technocrats: " MIT's contribution to producing technocrats was what it did not teach. It did not teach humility. It did not teach that the world is too complex for technocrats to control. "
  • Tabarrok:  Affirmative Action studied:  Doesn't accomplish goals @ Duke.
  • Fatness -- Junk food NOT related???  HT: Munger
  • Brin -- Great discussion of competition as the driver of prosperity.  Fails to conclude well.
  • Law proposal 
  • Blunt Object -- Great discussion of Paternalism 
  • Robin Hanson -- On being wrong.
  • Isegoria finds flying windmills that may be power-effective, even if they still shred bats.
  • Slashdot finds the evolution of multicellular life in 2 months from single-celled organisms.  This was one of the BIG yet-unknowns in evolution.  The transition from proto-RNA to cells appears to be the only big missing step where we don't understand the path.
  • Horn and Wilkinson on SOPA
  • Instapundit on practical climate solutions. (Really)
  • LaTNB -- Competitive Law in Dubai?

The ONE great idea

In the Aretae mind, there is a single uber-idea that suffuses every aspect of life...that explains not only how things are, but how things should be.

  • In one word:  Feedback.  
  • In a sentence: reality gives information awful cheap when you try stuff.

And it explains everything:

  • The history of life...how did life get here, how did humans arrive?  Trial and Error (death), usually called evolution.
  • The human mind...how did it get to be how it is?  Trial and Error (death), AKA Evolutionary Psychology
  • The history of civilization...how did humans become prosperous?  Trial and Error(bankruptcy), usually called free-market economics.  
  • Invention, improving stuff?  Iphone 4 vs. 1?  Edison's light bulb?  Trial and Error, AKA Prototyping.  Lean is the Trial and Error-generated mechanism for formalizing (harnessing) the prototyping process.
  • Learning, and in particular, becoming expert?  Trial and Error.  Doing is the core of learning, and the serious learning occurs at the point of identifying errors.

What is it you want to understand about the world?  The feedback system is the universal explanatory feature? The question is juist how it applies.


Psychology

The book:  Why Everyone (Else) Is a Hypocrite solves psychology as a problem.  It's the Alexandrian sword to the Gordian knot of the mind.

In one swell foop, it explains not only Kahneman's issues, but other diverse thinkers like Szasz.    While the hypothesis(the non-unitary mind) isn't new to me, or even controversial (in my mind)...the extent to which it solves the whole of explaining the mind is phenomenal.  If you read one book on psychology in the year, read this one.  You simply don't think about the mind right, if you don't have this model firmly embedded in your head.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Idea of the Day

From the fabulous book: Why Everyone (Else) Is a Hypocrite, we get this: The best working model of the human mind suggests to us that the thing you think of as "you" is best modeled as the press secretary for the committee that is your mind. For those who don't know, press secretaries are usually kept (intentionally) largely ignorant of what's really going on, and have a responsibility of making the committee look good to the external world.

Think on it for a while.  FWIW, this is my current favorite book about the mind, having already eclipsed Kahneman.  Thesis:  the unitary self is a crazy position that makes sense only halfway, and only when introspecting somewhat delusionally.  All modern science knows that the mind is a pile of modules all trying to interact, and all very specialized, with a thin facade of self pretending at unity.

Word otD

Straw Vulcan -- HT: Illka @ the renamed Wingnut Musings

Monday, January 16, 2012

Wolfers on Happiness and income

Wolfers (video) discusses the error of the Easterlin Paradox: There is nothing on the planet that improves the life of people more than increasing income.  Money quote:  "A 10% rise in income improves happiness by a fixed amount, regardless of your start point".

Racism and Finite Mental Resources

Some months ago, I read an article suggesting that the primary problem facing NAM's was a lack of Patience, not a lack of any other trait (IQ, conscientiousness, etc.).  In particular, the NAMs suffered a special unwillingness to take shit from their bosses.  And of course, it's well known to my regular readers that I think that patience (willingness to defer gratification) is the uber-trait, beating out IQ by a fair margin.

Upon discussing this with my wife...she pointed out that we have a pretty solid model of internal/mental resources as limited.  Kahneman's recent book reminded us that concentration is a finite, depleteable resource.  Similarly, a couple days ago John Goodman linked to a study showing willpower is measureable in blood glycogen levels or some such (the Aretae theory of how sufficient sleep positively impacts weight loss relies heavily on this linkage)

Suppose for a moment (actually, I'm asserting that this is true) that on average, NAMs get more shit in a given day before they get to work than do whites/Asians.  If this is true, then you should expect that a the characteristics of our society would make it so an average NAM would have a lower tolerance for boss-, or customer- bullshit than an all-aspects equivalent White who hadn't suffered the same amount of crap on the way to work. If one adds in that many folks also give MORE shit to the NAM at work...you've built a relatively unsustainable position.

Same results (lower tolerance for BS, with massive negatives on job-results), different explanatory structure.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Foundational Epistemology -- part VI

A few cleanup items around epistemology:  

What is the correct response to:  Don't you believe in the healing power of Geodesic Domes?
The correct response is laughter...because it's a joke.  Only jokers ask questions like that.  However, even if it were not intended as a joke, the correct response remains laughter.  
If this isn't you're response, you either have a surfeit of politeness, or you're crazy.  Most weird-a$$ ideas are just wrong, and it's not worth devoting ANY brainpower to them until you have evidence that they might be correct.  
IF someone persists...then you ask for a clear, english statement of the hypothesis...that you can understand in relation to stuff you can touch.  
What measurements could we take that would distinguish a world where Geodesic domes had healing power be different from one wherein they didn't?
Then, you ask for non-anecdotal evidence (statistical, double blind, peer reviewed studies?) that demonstrate correlations between Geodesics and Accelerated healing rates. 
If they can provide those...then you start your Bayesian approach, integrating this data with other data you have.  Until then? 

What about unicorns?  *snort*
Faeries? *snicker*
Homeopathy?  *boggle*
Crystals? *rofl*
Spirits/Ghosts/Angels/Demons? *eyebrow*
6-dimensional invisible blue banana?  Thor?  Other Gods? 

The same result holds in all cases.  I have NO evidence, and NO reason to believe.  In these cases, the correct response remains laughter.  Belief...or even taking the question seriously remains an epistemological error.  Evidence needs to arrive before you even take the question seriously.  

Aside:  this assumes that your goal remains to arrive at a predictive model of the world.  If your goal is otherwise (tribe-fitting, most likely), then by all means, do otherwise.  Goal always precedes evaluation.  

Books I finished this week:

Coercion -- Advertising how they screw you manual.  Some discussion of cults, MLM.  Much detail.  I didn't find the writing compelling, and I didn't really care about the topic. The introduction...first 10 pages or so are great...but after that it's a lot slower.  I had trouble finishing it.

We Are All Weird Now -- Claim:  The bell curve (in 1 dimension) is flattening.   It's becoming awful hard (read: impossible) to find a cultural center at all.  Indeed...wealth creates choices, and when people have choices, they exercise them, and the traditional common culture we often hear wished for not only doesn't exist any longer...it's impossible for a society of rich people.  Really interesting. 100 pages ... ~15 minute read.

The Great Stagnation -- Productivity Growth has slowed.  But the thesis doesn't even resemble the thesis I thought he was thes-ing before I read the book.  The actual claim:  Huge productivity gains on the web have translated into strongly better lives for some but not all people. We're transitioning away from an economy wherein STUFF matters very much.  Japan shows us a path (maybe) to graceful decline.  But fundamentally, we can't afford the government, education, health care we have, and it needs fixed...and if we did that, that might fix more than just those topics.

Groovy in Action -- I should have read this ~3-5 years ago.  I'd identified most of the problems with Java, but Groovy hands me most of the solutions.  I expect I would be just as impressed by Python...but as a Java ecosystem-dweller, I'll probably stick with Groovy.  If anyone is sufficiently into both Python and Groovy that they'd like to explain why Python is really better than Groovy, I'd listen.  Claim:  The proper software learning curve for normal-ish developers goes something like:  Procedural code (C/VB6)...OO code (Java)...Frameworks(Spring)...Test First Development...Patterns...Agile in General...Groovy/Python

Grails in Action -- Great book.  Seems super-simple when you have a background in Java/Spring/ORM/Struts Tiles/Rails/RESTful services.  I suppose that if you didn't this would be complicated.  Book is very well done.  Aretae-approved by-example methodology.

The Lean Startup -- Best book I've read since Kahneman.  May now be my favorite book on Lean/Cyclical processes and the God of the Feedback Loop.  I don't know how much my appreciation of this book comes from having read ALL of the prior writers on the topic.  It really is a marvelous book...and it upped my understanding about how to use the feedback loop in business substantially.  And with characteristic immodesty...that's saying a fair bit.  I read this one slowly (a week or so), even though it was short, in order to let it digest.


Saturday, January 14, 2012

PoTD

Bloody Shovel with a long bit reminding us that the #1 enemy of tradition (and authority) is capitalism and the free market.  I'm pretty sure I come down on the opposite side of most of the questions raised than does the author.  For instance...I hate (with a white hot passion) both drill and ritual.  But the thought process is right.  Now if only the rest of the reactionaries would catch up and realize that tradition and capitalism are incompatible...

Foundational Epistemology -- part V

Causality.
The traditional question is "How do I know if something is caused?"  The extra-short answer provided by Hume is very simple:  You don't.  Full stop.  Do not pass go, do not collect $200.
Fortunately, we gave up on this simple formulation a long time ago (back in Part I).  Rather, our question is...what is our most successful method for predicting the future.
Fortunately...that problem has a known easy solution.

  1. Develop a mechanistic approach for making predictions
  2. Measure whether your predictions are correct
  3. When your approach fails to predict correctly, change the approach, or create boundary conditions.
    • Part 3 is almost universally failed...by everyone all the time. It's why CAS is the uber-think.

How do you find a mechanistic approach?  Turns out that's also a relatively solved problem:

  • For simple problems (Accelerations under reasonable speeds, Gas volume under reasonable pressures, etc.), look for an equation that describes the situation.    Use the equation as predictor until you find circumstances under which it doesn't work....then don't use that equation in the new circumstances.
  • For less simple problems (anything involving people), look for correlations.  With enough correlations (women like Cocky, Funny guys ~80% of the time, girls find competent guys pratfalls attractive) and enough boundary constraints (Cocky Funny works poorly when a girl's in a PMS week) , go Bayesian..  
    • Aside:  There appears to be a school of thought that suggests that less simple problems can be manages with models that ignore variables.  I find that this so universally fails step 2 above (and that the response in 3 is to tinker, rather than scrap) that the approach itself is faulty.  See Econ-modeling, Climate-modeling.
You might note...the notion of Causality is entirely missing from this model.  Why?  Because it's entirely unnecessary.  Give me correlations: F*** causality.  The purpose of causality is to allow human beings stories to tell to one another because our natural language isn't math.  Causality catches our memory better...but that's a defect in human brains, not a feature of the universe.


Interesting from Everywhere


  • Falkenstein commenting on a neg-upgrade?  My bet is it doesn't take off, because self-deprecation violates some of the "game"-r other- (higher) priorities.  
  • Gelman largely validates the male-female personality differences study.
  • Will Wilkinson on Leiter on Marxism: " ...make no mistake, Marxists did lose a big argument, one we now know as "the 20th century." The evidence has been in a while. People fare best in liberal-democratic welfare states with capitalist economic systems. This is a fact available to any honest inquirer. The places where human needs are best met are not those in which aggrieved majorities swoop in and suddenly confiscate 3/4 of the assets of successful capitalists. They are places that don't do that."
  • Tuttle on the confusion between crony-capitalism and capitalism:   "So long as the confusion between free markets and plutocracy persists – so long as libertarians allow their laudable attraction to free markets to fool them into defending plutocracy, and so long as those on the left allow their laudable opposition to plutocracy to fool them into opposing free markets – neither libertarians nor the left will achieve their goals, and the state-corporate partnership will continue to dominate the political scene."
  • Tim B. Lee:  Google is indeed less evil.
  • Obama does something right.
  • Caplan: what would real real GDP be?
  • Kling with a decent response to McArdle's muddleheadedness on Copyright.
  • CoyoteBlog channels Hayek re: the Fed.
  • Caplan:  Egalitarianism necessarily increases inequality.
  • John Goodman notes we've found the mechanism for finite willpower.
  • HBDChick points out an obvious truth to go with Caplan's from a few days ago.  If it's configured as us vs. them...killing them (in an unpunished fashion) is the smart thing to do.  One reason I really dislike Jehu's us-vs-them strategizing.


Friday, January 13, 2012

Foundational Epistemology -- part IV

I would say that the core insight (that I have taken away) from philosophy is that if you start in the middle, you will conclude only whatever assumptions are relatively embedded in the terms of the question that you ask. All interesting philosophical discussions start at a topic, and walk backwards.  Forwards just doesn't happen.  So...the Cartesian strategy of starting at the beginning has emerged as the only sane one.  Let's not give any room to go backwards.

So...a foundationalist inductivist like me suggests that we start at the beginning ... with what we sense...and mvoe forward from there.  Any even moderately competent developmental psychologist will point out that we do indeed appear to start from nowhere...There is no CONTENT to our minds at birth (only structure)...indeed, to reference mind at the beginning is a bit much.  Instead...we have reflexes, and built-in preferences, and a brain structure that will accumulate information.

In the first few months, an infant functions more or less as a machine...if (unpleasantness) then {cry}. If (pleasure) then {more}. Pleasureable/Painful (good/bad) is the primary awareness of the child.  It predates everything else by a LONG time (months).  Somewhat after that, by observation, the child develops (by observation) the distinction between self and not-self (things I control, things I don't).  Eventually, the child has control of it's own muscles.  Later, the notion of the external world as regular arrives (object permanence).    Soon thereafter, it moves into the primary animal-kingdom conditioning pattern.  If (good response), increase frequency of (prior behavior), but unlike other animals, it also has vocal cords, brain modules designed for language acquisition, and built-in pleasure from communicating

After this, we develop the capability to handle number...Montessori on the process of acquisition of the concept of number permanence is irreplaceable here.  Also...it does an awful good job of making one laugh at Pythagoras, Plato, and Bertrand Russell's attempts to argue for number as something beyond inductivist positions.

Long after that...we develop the notion of other perspectives.  What I see/believe is not what you see/believe.  Piaget did the experiments...it's near 6yo that this ability emerges.  Also, we separate the world into intentional and inert sometime early in life (between ~3? and 9).  

Being aware that the human brain creates the notion of the not-self (and by contrast the self) sometime after  months of observing the world seems to me to be essential to any undestanding of foundational philosophy.  The external world is NOT a postulate...it is a conclusion that is the best predictive hypothesis from sense data.

An awful lot of the first categories that we learn as human beings are things.  Mama.  Dada.  Dog.  Appuh.  'Puter.    An awful lot of what we do when learning concepts is observe things in the world...hear a (new) word used to describe a thing...and then create a mental (fuzzy) circle separating "things like that" from "things not like that".  However, that's not all of learning, that's mostly learning of nouns, and some other parts of speech.  A different huge amount of child-word-acquisition is "If I say X, I get results Y"...and calculating based on X=>Y.

Also...early on (3?) a preliminary forms of ethics evolves in the human child.   Early ethics ~= Justice: To each what they deserve.  Nice people deserve good stuff.  Mean folks should be punished.

Most of the rest of child ethics is a result of predictive adult-management.  If I say "God is good," or "Save the environment", I get praise from parent...so do.  The statements are moderately content-free when said for the first 100 times.   The insidiousness of this is that phrases are being attached to a child's emotional substrate at a point prior to the child's ability to even identify whether the phrases have meaning.  Only folks who are aspie-ish will ever go back and screw with this conditioning.

Sometime near 14 (minus, say, 1 -1.5 years per sigma), the mind matures further, and becomes capable of handling abstraction in a decent way....now that the foundational stuff of having constructed an internal set of tags associating words with things is handled.  Of course, also in the same time frame, hormones flood our bodies, and our ability to focus on non-sexual stuff drops remarkably for ~4 years.

ASIDE:  this gives notably advanced kids, or hormonally delayed kids an enormous advantage that I've not head discussed previously: their primary abstract learning years (10-14) occur in a relatively hormone-free environment.  Further, given that girls hit the hormones earlier...does that damage their chance to learn abstractly?  Also, Blacks have earlier sexual maturity.  This may cause issues given hormones.  Does this imply that single-sex schools are more important for girls and blacks than for whites, asians, and boys.   Or does the age of abstraction drop as well?  Normal folks hit the age of mental abstraction roughly at the age they lose the interest in making mental abstractions.

So...when we reach the age of intellectual maturity (20?)...our brains are roughly adult brains...however most philosophers approaching questions here have forgotten that most (all?) of our CONCEPTS are "tap-it" concepts, with the concept itself having been created from experience...and that many of our WORDS are effect-based words, not words with referents.

As a foundationalist...it is my intent to attach meaning to words by reference to referents in the world that I can tap (cat), point-to (there is obviously some emotion being experienced by 2 people who cannot seem to keep their hands off one another -- Since people are all ~the same...that emotion [as said by a 10yo]), reference by date (Remember what I felt like that day when...).  Mostly, this is because otherwise...I don't know WTF you're talking about...and I assert that most likely neither do you.

Mostly, I don't believe that people are doing more than mouthing desires when they talk about stuff that they can't take back to taps.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Exercise

Random note:

I started trying Tim Ferriss's Kettlebell exercise stuff a few days ago.  Damn!  Best ass-exercise I've ever done, and I did pretty hardcore superslow for a couple years, with a focus (as all superslow) on leg-press which is a Glute/Quad jobber.  More of my body was sore from that one exercise, for the next 2 days, than from any other thing I've done.  It's like...the amount of your body that gets used is like pullups ... all of it but a limb or two...but the muscle groups are much bigger.  One more time:  wow.

otDs


  • Via Media on Head Start.  Verdict:  NO EFFECT!
  • Isegoria finds a history of Trader Joe's.
  • Megan McArdle, unusually muddled pro-IP post.  Is this confirmation bias on my part?
  • John Goodman, Compassion Fatigue.
  • HBDChick and "Heartiste" both link to a study on gender differences.   Heartiste quotes half the findings of the study in order to promote his position, ignoring the other half.  HBDChick links to the study itself, which is fascinating.  If you take the 16pf (15 factor equivalent of the big 5) personality traits as a whole, on any given personality trait, there's pretty substantial overlap (30+%) between the male and the female personality traits...However, if you map the 16pf trait combinations as positions in a 15-dimensional space, there's a ~10% overlap between male and female personalities.
  • Also from HBDChick, there's a norweigan comedian-gone-documentarian who does a subtitled 40 minute video of sex differences research.  Takeaway:  at 1 day, you can measure interest differences between boys and girls (objects vs. faces).  Even more interesting...you can take blood, get testosterone levels, and measure predict interest differences that are stable over at least the first 8 years.  Better:  the testosterone levels predict interest independent of the gender of the child.    

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Word otD

Isegoria finds it:  the joint-year.

Links and Riffs


  • AnomalyUK is still the only one of the formalists I saw who discussed the Cowen-linked monarchy paper.  Why?  At least read Anomaly's discussion.
  • David Brin has one of his usual thoughtful riffs...which most interestingly includes this graph, which suggests that productivity per worker has increased faster recently, while wages have been increasing at the same old rate.  
    • My question...is that because the workers are not responsible for the increased productivity?  Rather, the movement of intelligence (algorithms) off the brain and onto machines has led to worker-free productivity?    Do we have something wrong with our productivity statistics in that they don't capture this?
  • Quote from this article:
    the foundation's numerous publications repeat the finding that new firms -- not small firms -- are the source of almost 3 million net new jobs that on average are created in the United States each year.
  • I've already quoted from this Falkenstein post once.  
  • Spandrell is chasing his earlier insight on HNU (UPDATED) Theory being the source of many problems.  I would have said it differently, and differently focused, but the insight is strong.
  • BluntObject on Ron Paul.
  • Eric Crampton's Coasian Grinch story. 
  • Hanson on Hubris.  on Being Weird.  hilariously mocking tyler on intransitive morality
  • Ta-Nehisi Coates on the civil war.

Foundational Epistemology -- part III

What beliefs predict the future well?

  1. Existence doesn't make sense as a word without its meaning that the external world exists.
  2. The past resembles the future.
  3. Induction is the path to (predictive) success, and along with brain-structure, the source of all mind-content.  
    • The concept of number, for instance, is gradually learnt, and only by looking at THINGS.
    • Verbal (not-mathy) deductive logic can usually safely be assumed (99% success rate) to be non-predictive.  
    • Most guesses/hypotheses/conclusions (whichever you call them) are wrong
    • Most useful truths are statistical.
    • The only reliable path to success is:  Guess, measure, confirm failure, repeat N times, eventually fail less.
  4. Other consciousnesses are basically like mine.
    • Especially vice-versa.  To predict the self, observe others...introspection sucks.
    • The aggregate of other (weighted?informed?) opinions is FAR more likely to be right than mine.
    • Weak EMH, alternatively Adaptive Markets Hypothesis.
    • Turns out social epistemology predicts incredibly well (compared to many other options) if you're within a couple sigma of average intelligence + wisdom.  
  5. Minds makes sense of the world by creating patterns/heuristics from far too little evidence.
    • Probably the most useful patterns are Categorization and Math. Categorization may even be built-in to the brain.
    • Probably the most important set of categories to life is: Inert, Alive, Intentional, Conscious
    • Maybe the 2nd most important set of categories is: Inert Constructed vs. Inert Not-Constructed. 
    • Most patterns you see aren't there.
  6. You need a LOT of samples before your intuition is worth more than dog poo.
    • See: Tycho Brahe
  7. Complex Adaptive Systems(The God of the feedback loop) may be the most useful explanatory pattern ever created.  Mechanics is awful good too, but applicable to so much less of the interesting world.
    • CAS = Evolution, Economics, Lean.Systems, OODA, Artificial Life, etc.
    • The key insight here is that thoughts around purpose are almost always wrongheaded.  Think process, not purpose....and get results that look purposeful.
    • Given that humans and human brains evolved, the uniquely human brain is no less a product of evolution than the 20-odd different evolved eyes in the animal kingdom...What reproductive success arms-races did the existence of large brains win, despite the large biological cost of said large brains?  I can even partially answer this one.  It wasn't better prediction or better mammoth-killing.
      • Hyper-important issue in evolution.  Inside a species, almost all evolution is intra-group evolution.  How did proto-chimps with bigger brains win the reproduction contest against their stronger, stupider herd-mates? 
  8. An awful lot of questions are broken, for dozens of reasons.  Picking good questions may be the hardest of the thinks.
    • It is not obvious, for instance, that "Why?" is a coherent question much of the time.  Usually, the question requires clarification....much of the time it assumes an answer.
    • Among the best(?!?) bad questions are ones which start of with "What is the meaning/purpose of".  Meaning and purpose are properties of intentional beings...and so meaning and purpose questions are almost always missing a "to whom".  Finish the "to whom" and the question frequently becomes answerable.
  9. Hypotheses with no predictive payload do not deserve much prediction brain-time.
    • "I believe that elves paint the moonbeams every night"  


Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Other other QoTD

Falkenstein:
I especially like the idea that any ability comes with trade-offs and so in a sense we are all idiot-savants, good at some things, bad at others, especially with respect to really different people. I know a lot of smart people, but I've never met one who didn't have blind spots. It's good to remember that because if you think that because you have a really high IQ, are really rich, or are a good speaker, you are therefore the smartest guy in any room, you are going to make a very big mistake someday.

Other QoTD

Caplan again:
We've learned so much from human genetic research.  But when I read Fisher, I understand why the subject terrifies so many people.  Hereditarianism combined with inane, half-baked moral philosophy does indeed logically imply Nazi-style homicidal mania.  But don't blame the facts of human genetics.  Blame the inane, half-baked moral philosophy.

Distracted a bit

Reading & Other.

  • The Lean Startup is a superb book.  What happens if you take Liker and Blank and mix them.  Review forthcoming.  I'm strangely reading it slow, because it makes me think.
  • I'm realtively unimpressed with the Coercion book. 
  • Groovy is a fun language.  So far, I like it.  And it integrates into Java, which makes it better.  Indeed, with the purpose of Java 7 being to integrate Groovy (and others)...life is pretty good.

I'll 2nd that QoTD

here

Education Factoid

In an arbitrary classroom of 30 students, all nominally at the same level, the best possible professor will be talking at the correct level for roughly 4 (+/- 2) of them.  Only the massively discredited HNU hypothesis allows anyone to think otherwise.  This should change the laptops in classrooms debate.  It doesn't.
UPDATE:  It's not clear what I'm talking about.  Here's Illka.  And Blunt Object.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

QoTD

Will Wilkinson explains why Growth is the god-metric:
As far as we know, growth is instrumental to health, happiness, longevity, the development of basic and not-so-basic human capacities, and peace. As far as we know, nothing does as much good.

Foundational Epistemology -- part II

Given that our goal is now to discover the kinds of beliefs that will help us predict the future...what next?  How does one discover not specifically the beliefs that will help us predict the future, but the kinds of beliefs?  My assertion:  You look for folks who have a good history of predicting the future.  Clear predictions made before events...clear results after.  Ideally, you look for highly specific predictions in the present, or in your own memory.  Historical predictions are hideously prone to be rewritten (See: Paul Krugman) and predictions that are not highly specific are subject to massive interpretation.  (See:  Astrology, Cold-reading)

 Who predicts the future successfully for a living?

I assert that we have a great deal of study of 3 distinct groups, each of whom depends for their livelihood on the ability to predict the future.

  1. Scientists (also, applied scientists like Engineers, Doctors, Programmers)
  2. Gamblers (also, otherly named gamblers like Investors, Actuaries, VC's, etc.)
  3. Children (Kids spend their first 10 years in an almost constant state of trying to make sense of their world...well, and get what they want)
What can we learn from these groups?
  1. Everyone sucks at predicting new and complex stuff, all the time. 
    • Specifically, untested theory is almost always wrong.  It isn't quite right to suggest that anyone pushing a theory without it having been tested should automatically be assumed to be wrong...but it's not that wrong either.
  2. Successful predictors talk in terms of probabilities, or probability spaces.  Sane prediction methods never say, outside of very odd cases, "X will happen."  Rather...with innumerable forces in play, the only sane claims are: there is roughly a P% chance that a result within range ε (epsilon) of X will happen.  Predictive intelligence happens when we get serious about the P and the ε.  The X is mostly bloviation.
  3. Induction appears to be the primary/only path.  Gather large amounts of data...look for patterns.  Occasionally, if you've gathered enough data, you can see patterns that are there, rather than fictional.  If extra-lucky, your pattern may extend beyond the narrow space you're looking in.
    • Aside...can one model mathematics (esp. advanced maths) as being an exploration of the space of all possible patterns?  So as to be more able to recognize the patterns when they appear elsewhere?  This would solve Einstein's question about why math describes the world.
  4. There's very little substitute for the Gembutsu approach.  If you want to understand a topic, Get Your Boots On, and go DO it for a while.  Thinking about a topic abstractly ain't good for much.
  5. People build models of the world...they do not discover them.  Learning is the process of people building their own models of the world which correspond better to some external standard. 
Ok...does that get us anywhere? More tomorrow, I'm tired.